Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th December)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday morning, later Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Recap

No real change to the tiny waves the last few days, but we should be seeing some new W/SW swell filling in this afternoon to 1-2ft by dark. Winds are onshore though.

This week and weekend (Dec 25 - 28)

Today's late increase in W/SW swell should hold into tomorrow to an inconsistent 1-2ft across the South Arm, and a secondary pulse for Friday morning to a similar size is still on track. The frontal system generating this secondary swell has been upgraded in strength but is still too far north of our prime swell window.

We should still see good 2ft sets Friday morning before easing during the day and further Saturday from the 1ft+ range.

Winds should be light offshore tomorrow morning ahead of a late onshore change and then Friday should offer a period of W/NW winds before an overriding SW'ly kicks back in. Saturday will then see all day offshore N/NW tending W/NW winds and a possible late kick in new W/SW swell.

Our better pulse of groundswell for Sunday and then Tuesday/Wednesday are looking good with a vigorous polar front currently firing up east of Heard Island due to push east along the polar shelf while generating a fetch of W/SW gales through our swell window.

The front will push up and across us during Saturday with the swell filling in behind it on Sunday.

The morning is only due to be in the 2ft range, but a kick to 2-3ft is due through the day. Winds are looking good during the morning with N/NW offshores before afternoon E'ly sea breezes kick in.

This weekend onwards (Dec 27 onwards)

Sunday's swell should drop away through Monday from 2ft or so under all day offshore N/NW tending W/NW winds.

A secondary and third pulse of similar sized W/SW swell is due into next week as the Southern Ocean continues to produce a succession of polar fronts up through our swell window. The next increase is due Tuesday afternoon/evening to 2-3ft but with onshore winds, with similar sized sets into Wednesday morning with more favourable winds. We'll look at this in closer detail on Friday though.