Large swell Friday morning, fading quickly through the day
Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Wednesday 1st October)
Best Days: Early Thursday, Friday, Saturday morning, Monday morning
Recap
Yesterday started off small and bumpy but a good increase in W/SW swell was seen through the afternoon ahead of a peak today in the 3ft range across Clifton with early W'ly winds. These have varied through the day but come back to the W/NW this afternoon keeping conditions clean.
This week and weekend (Oct 2 - 5)
Today's W/SW groundswell is expected to back off into tomorrow to 2-3ft, but this will only be temporary ahead of a strong and late increase in SW groundswell through the afternoon, peaking in the large range early Friday.
This will be related to a deep polar low that's currently forming to our south-west, being steered and strengthened up towards the Tasman Sea under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.
A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds will be aimed through our swell window, producing a large SW groundswell for later tomorrow and Friday morning.
Clifton should increase to 3-5ft late in the day with onshore SW winds.
A peak is due early Friday to 5-6ft ahead of a quick drop through the day, back further from 2-3ft Saturday morning.
Winds should swing W/NW temporarily around Clifton Friday morning ahead of a swing back to the SW before lunch and variable into the late afternoon. Saturday should then see favourable N/NW winds all day.
Sunday morning is expected to be tiny, but a late increase in new W/SW groundswell is due, generated by an unfavourable low tracking south-east from the Southern Indian Ocean.
A late kick Sunday to 2ft is expected before easing from a similar size Monday morning.
Winds will be best Monday so aim for a surf then.
Next Monday onwards (Oct 6 onwards)
Into the middle of next week we may see another polar low firing up to out south-west and pushing towards the Tasman Sea generating another good SW groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Friday morning. This won't be to the size of Friday's swell, but we'll review this again Friday.