South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 22nd Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Blocking pattern this week with onshore winds and small E/NE swells
• Small S and SE swells this weekend as trough forms off MNC with light winds, tending N’ly in the a’noon
• Troughy, unstable pattern continues next week with trough of low pressure forming in Tasman
• Building S/SE-SE swells likely by mid next week with tricky winds

Recap

Not a great deal of quality surf since Mondays notes. There was some long period S swell in the water yesterday with 3-4ft sets in NENSW but N-NE winds really limited surfable options and swell barely showed in SEQLD, where E’ly swell in the 2ft range dominated. Light N-NE winds this morning and a small mixed bag to 2ft in SEQLD with a few larger sets from the S in NENSW. Nothing much of quality with a few backbeaches in NENSW seeing the best of an ordinary lot.

MId North Coast beachies were the best of an ordinary bunch

This week (Nov 22-24)

We currently have a trough moving north before stalling out on the Mid North Coast, sandwiched between a high pressure belt moving at Tasmanian longitudes. It’s a weak synoptic pattern with no major swell sources- a passing front weakens as it traverses the Tasman, leaving an off-axis fetch parallel with New Zealand. There should be enough minor swell sources of no real quality to stay wet through the short term.

In the short run the stalled trough maintains a N, tending NE flow across the region apart from a period of S-SE winds around Coffs. Winds should be light with the disrupted NE flow, at least through until midday. Not much surf on hand, just a small blend of E’ly and SE’ly swells to 1-2ft at best. 

High pressure sliding East of Tasmanian on Fri sees the onshore flow tend more E’ly. The onshore flow will lead to junky surf with mostly short range S/SE-SE swells to 1-2ft. Again, just a small grovel on the beachies is on offer, likely with poor quality. 

This weekend (Nov 25-26)

Light winds look likely for Sat, for the morning at least with a light/mod N/NE flow in the a’noon. Again winds should be lighter in SEQLD stronger south of Yamba. A small blend of short range S/SE-SE and S swells from a lingering off-axis fetch near New Zealand should offer up enough energy in the 1-2ft range for a grovel at open beaches. Light W winds tending N then NE in the a’noon. 

Similar surf on Sunday, just a small, weak blend of S and E swell to 1-2ft. Similar winds too, although we’ll see the N’ly flow increase in NENSW in response to an approaching trough. Light winds early will offer the best of it but big morning tides will require a workable shorey bank.

Next week (Nov 27 onwards)

More of the same tricky, troughy outlook next week. 

Leftover S swells and small NE windswell supply small surf Mon, in the 2ft range. A complex trough of low pressure in the Tasman looks to bring a S’ly flow Mon possibly stalling again on the MNC- although revisions are expected.

Small NE wind swells carry on into Tues.

This trough of low-pressure becomes slow moving in the Tasman next week under current modelling and should be the main swell source. There’s reasonable model agreement that the trough will deepen and a reasonable fetch of SE winds along the southern flank of the trough will generate building swells possibly as early as Wed.

Winds don’t look ideal, being from the S/SE-E through the Wed-Fri period next week but we should see S/SE-SE swells up into the 3-4ft range during this period, with a possible upgrade in size if the low becomes deeper and more organised. 

Easing swells then look likely into the first weekend of Summer. 

Let’s see how it looks come Fri.