Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 16th January)

This week through next (Jan 17 - 24)

Our large, long-period SW groundswell started to show on dark Tuesday, while yesterday saw the swell filling in proper with large surf reported across exposed breaks, holding into this morning with a greater spread of size.

The swell was prolonged across Western Australia and will be simlar across our regions, with it easing slowly through tomorrow, further into Saturday.

We then look at the larger, long-period S/SW groundswell due into Sunday/Monday across the region, with the frontal progression linked to it currently weakening to the south-west of Western Australia.

This system formed south-east of South Africa and has produced fetches of slow moving gale to severe-gale-force W’ly winds, projecting more towards Western Australia and us last night and today while weakening.

A large, consistent mix of groundswell and mid-period energy are due to build through Sunday, reaching an easy 8ft by dark with Monday coming in around the 8-10ft range before easing off later in the day but more so Tuesday, further Wednesday.

Following this there’s nothing of note at all for the rest of the week and early to mid the following week. More on this Tuesday.

Fresh to strong W/NW-NW winds are due over the coming days, persisting into Monday before tending more variable on Tuesday.

Over in the Mentawais, the first initial pulse of large swell should be starting to ease and we’ll see the next pulse arriving Sunday and reaching the peak size into the afternoon, easing slowly from a similar size Monday morning.

Winds will start to freshen from the N/NW-NW on Sunday, persisting most of next week but easing slightly from about Wednesday onwards.

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Maldives: The S’ly groundswell from earlier in the week is still the most dominant across the region, with a weak mix of background SE trade-swell and NE windswell padding out other breaks.

Our next pulse of moderate to large sized S’ly groundswell may be seen later tomorrow but a peak is due through Saturday, with more size than seen on Tuesday expected across the southern atolls.

The NE windswell should also strengthen a little tomorrow/Saturday morning thanks to strengthening monsoonal NE winds that will start to ease along with the local winds from the weekend.

S’ly groundswell will remain dominant into early next week before easing leaving no real quality swell sources for the region.

Developing SE trades and a possible cyclone off Western Australia through early next week may generate some inconsistent SE groundswell later next week/weekend but we’ll have to review this on Tuesday.

Otherwise a very long-range and inconsistent pulse of S’ly groundswell is due later week as well, though the source was south-west of South Africa. It’ll be very inconsistent but provide sets for the keen on the southern atolls.

Local winds will be strong out of the NE tomorrow, lighter and more variable to the south with fresh E/NE winds on Saturday, variable to the south, weaker again Sunday. Next week should consist of mostly N’th winds through the early stages, tending E/NE-NE to the north and W/NW to the south mid-late week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large, easing groundswell over the coming days.

Secondary large S/SW groundswell building Sunday to 8ft across exposed breaks later, peaking Monday to 8-10ft, easing thereafter.

Fresh to strong W/NW-NW winds for the coming days, easing a touch Monday and variable from Tuesday.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing S/SW groundswell over the coming days.

Secondary large S/SW groundswell for Sunday, reaching 8ft+ through the day, easing slowly Monday.

Variable winds, freshening from the N/NW-NW Sunday through Wednesday, easing thereafter.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

NE windswell building tomorrow, reaching 3ft, easing from a similar size on Saturday.

Moderate to large S’ly groundswell for later tomorrow, peaking Saturday to 5-6ft across the southern atolls, easing slowly Sunday and further Monday.

Inconsistent S’ly groundswell later next week to 3ft across the southern atolls.

Strong NE winds tomorrow (lighter to the south), fresh and tending E/NE on Saturday, weaker Sunday.

N winds early-mid next week, tending E/NE across northern locations and W/NW across southern locations mid-late week.