South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 22nd May)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Sizey S swell pulse Mon favouring NENSW, easing through Tues with offshore winds
• More small S swell pulses Wed/Thurs favouring NENSW, becoming tiny in SEQLD
• Another sizey S swell event expected late Fri into Sat, easing Sun as low forms off Sydney and moves into Tasman
• Possible small SE-ESE swell next week if low lingers in Tasman Sea
• More S swell through the medium term

Recap

Pumping surf over the weekend with NENSW topping out Sat in the 6ft+ range, 4ft in SEQLD with all day offshore winds. Sunday eased with sets to 3-4ft still on offer in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD and continuing offshore winds. A strong front pushing into the Tasman has seen surf rebuild in NENSW to 4-5ft, bigger 6ft+ at S swell magnets. SEQLD is seeing smaller 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches with offshore SW winds tending S’ly through the day. 

This week (May 22-26)

A winter calibre front and low has now transited the Tasman, after generating a solid S swell for the Eastern Seaboard. Large high pressure (1032 hPa)is moving across inland NSW bringing settled conditions and  light winds to the region, for the next few days.  Late this week, likely Fri, we’ll see a cold front and upper trough combine to form another deep, coastal low possibly with gales to strong gales. Compared to the last system that generated XL surf in Sydney, this low is positioned slightly further north and moves away quicker, suggesting sizier surf for NENSW but smaller than the last event.

In the short run and we’ll see dreamy winds set in through tomorrow, light offshore extending well into the day before light SE breezes. S swell will be on the way down with a morning peak to 4-5ft across NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD, steadily easing back to 3-4ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller north of the border.

Small, long period S swell trains are on the menu for Wed, generated by continuing frontal activity in the lower Tasman mostly aimed at New Zealand targets. Offshore W/NW winds through the morning are likely to tend NW through the a’noon, possibly with some patches of N’ly in the a’noon. S swell magnets should see some 2-3ft sets through the day from a mix of long period and mid period S swell, clean as a whistle under groomed conditions. Small 1-2ft surf at the most reliable S swell magnets in SEQLD.

Thursday looks like the low point of the week as S swell trains become tiny, just a few 1-2ft sets at S swell magnets, tiny elsewhere. Morning offshore W/NW breezes are expected to freshen during the day in a pre-frontal NW flow.

By Friday morning we should see a complex low winding up and deepening off the Sydney/Central Coast region, with SW gales developing during the day and a very large S swell being whipped up, likely in the 6ft range in NENSW. We should see that swell show around Coffs late in the a’noon, possibly reaching Ballina/Byron right on dark. SEQLD should stay tiny. 

This weekend (May 27-28)

Models suggest the low moves away to the NE later Fri into Sat past Lord Howe Island into the Central Tasman with plenty of swell being generated for Northern NSW, easing swells in temperate NSW. Expect size in the 6ft+ range across NENSW S exposed breaks with smaller surf in the 3-4ft range in SEQLD. A mod/fresh SW flow will confine clean conditions to sheltered and semi-sheltered spots.

Winds moderate Sun as a weak front pushes out of Bass Strait bringing a a light SW-S flow through the day. Expect an easing mix of S-S/SE swells to 3-4ft, dropping back to 2-3ft during the day. Smaller in SEQLD.

Next week (May 29 onwards)

Still some model divergence for next week with EC suggesting the Tasman low which forms Fri will linger in the Tasman and become slow moving , possibly sending some useful E quadrant swell our way through early next week. GFS is much less bullish on this idea. 

Offshore winds continue into early next week and frontal activity below Australia remains turned up, better aimed for Victoria but still sending small, long period S swells our way. 

A stronger front then looks to approach mid week, suggesting a moderate S swell blast Thurs.

We’ll see how all this is shaping up on Wed, seeya then.