South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 19th May)
 

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Reinforcing pulse of SSE-SE swell Fri under light winds
• Solid SE swell extends into Sat with mostly offshore winds
• Fun surf easing Sun with offshore winds continuing
• Sizey S swell pulses Mon favouring NENSW
• More S swell pulses through next week favouring NENSW, becoming tiny in SEQLD

Recap

Moderate S-SSE swell has supplied 3-5ft surf in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD. Morning SW winds have tended S’ly both yesterday and today favouring regional Points for the cleanest conditions. 

Better swell direction today saw a few on lower tides at SEQLD Points

This weekend (May 20 - 21)

We’re expecting plenty of fun waves for the weekend, Sat especially with our Tasman low stalling and deepening over the last 24-36hrs, slightly further away from NZ than modelled. That’s allowed E’ly quarter low end gales to develop in our swell window, even if aimed more directly further South. S’ly to SSW’ly near gales are better aligned for our region and will continue to send SSE-SE swell our way. With a blend of SE to E quadrant swell trains in the water and sets to 4ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, brushed by an offshore W’ly flow we should see plenty of good surf Sat, with an easing trend apparent in the mid-a’noon to late session.

That easing trend continues into Sun with leftover 3ft sets becoming inconsistent as size drop down through the morning, tending to 2ft surf post lunch. Early offshore W’ly winds will shift SW through the day as a front pushes through but should remain reasonably light/mod in strength.

Next week (May 22 onwards)

Lots of size now expected to fill in Mon across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD with the front pushing gales NE into the Tasman in a wide swathe and a deeper low tracking well to the south with stronger gales, albeit not quite connected to the frontal fetch. 

Expect mod/fresh SW winds Mon, tending S’ly during the day as the front moves away and a high pressure ridge builds along the sub-tropics. Size to 5-6ft across NENSW S facing beaches , smaller 2-3ft at S swell magnets in SEQLD is now expected, with a mix of (dominant) mid period and longer period swell trains making landfall. Most of that swell will fill in quickly through the early morning in NENSW, later morning in SEQLD.

That peak will come down later Tues with size easing to 4-5ft, in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Winds look OK with a weak front pushing through Bass Strait and high pressure moving over the area generating a morning W-SW flow likely tending to light/mod S-SE’lies.

Strong frontal activity persists under Tasmania right through next week and although the fetches are very zonal (W-E) swell models do tend to underestimate swell production and refraction into the Tasman Sea from these fetches. 

Winds look great for most of next week with the high pressure cell sitting far enough north for a synoptic W’ly flow with light seabreezes for most of the week. We may see some patches of NW winds more likely in SEQLD.

We’ll pencil in reinforcing pulses for Wed, likely in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches, easing into Thurs with another pulse Sat.

These pulses likely won’t do much in SEQLD so expect a run of tiny surf there from mid week.

We’ll see how those are shaping up when we come back on Mon. More S swell favouring NENSW looks to be on the menu as we enter the week 29/5, although at this stage in the small range as the fetches remain zonal and not penetrating fully into the Tasman Sea.

Thats likely to see a spell of tiny/flat surf for SEQLD with a small low pressure trough out near Fiji towards the end of next week the only hopeful sign of some action from the East. 

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!