South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th July)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Steadily easing size Tues with light winds (make the most of this!)
• Small surf for the rest of the week, possibly a small N'ly windswell Thurs/Fri
• Freshening N'ly tending NW then W'ly winds from Wed thru Sat
• Nothing amazing on the long term charts

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Steadily easing size Tues with light winds (make the most of this!)
• Extremely inconsistent SE groundswell Wed/Thurs, mainly south from Coffs
• Blustery conditions for a few days from Wed-Sat with winds swinging from the N/NW to NW, W/NW then W
• Short range S'ly swell Sun, easing Mon
• Small/mod S'ly swells for much of next week

Recap

A mix of S’ly swells provided occasional 2-3ft sets across Northern NSW on Saturday, with clean conditions under light winds. Surf size was much smaller in SE Qld. Sunday saw a very large S’ly swell push up the coast, peaking around the 10ft mark at exposed locations in Northern NSW, though with gusty SW tending S’ly winds. SE Qld saw 3-5ft surf across the outer points and bigger, windier surf at exposed locations. Wave heights have eased back steadily today, from 6ft+ in Northern NSW and 3-5ft throughout SE Qld. 

This week (July 13 - 16)

We’re on the backside of weekend’s event, but with not a great deal standing out in the forecast, you’ll be best off making the most of Tuesday’s light winds and fun surf.

Exposed beaches in Northern NSE should still pick up some early 3-4ft sets (smaller later) and it’ll be smaller throughout SE Qld (2-3ft open beaches, smaller on the points) but expect a decrease in size and consistency throughout the day. 

The main synoptic feature for this week is a series of strong fronts pushing quite north in latitude up over SE Qld, but detached from polar latitudes. This has two main effects - a prolonged stretch of blustery conditions, gradually swinging counter-clockwise from the N (Wed) thru’ N/NW (Thurs), then NW (Fri), W thru' W/SW (Sat) and finally SW (Sun).

We may see some local N’ly windswell from this pattern on Thursday and Friday, but probably just confined to a small region around the southern Gold Coast and Tweed Coast with low quality 2-3ft sets. I’ll have a closer look on Wednesday as we’ll see local winds becoming slightly more favourable around this time too. It’s not worth booking into the diary though.

Otherwise, on Wednesday the leading edge of several long period SE groundswells are expected to make landfall across the Mid North Coast, originating from a complex series of polar lows well south and south-east of New Zealand over the weekend.

Despite the tricky swell source (which is expected to have likely shadowed most locations north from Coffs) and the large travel distance, we should see intermittent 2-3ft sets at exposed spots south of Coffs throughout parts of Wednesday, possibly even into Thursday morning. But there will be extremely long breaks between waves - don’t be surprised if the ocean becomes near-flat for ten minute stretches. It's not a high confidence event so don't go planning any major surf activity around it.

Elsewhere, there’s not much new swell to look forward to. A small cut-off low south of Tasmania on Tuesday will generate a small, brief flush of south swell for the Mid North Coast’s south swell magnets on Friday - but it’s only going to be a foot or two at best.

Overall, we can expect the strongest winds from Thurs thru’ Sat, generally across the Mid North Coast - wind speeds will become a little lighter as you head north.  

This weekend (July 17 - 18)

The weekend storm track looks dynamic but it’s all in the wrong position for the East Coast. 

As mentioned above, because the fronts will be detached from polar latitudes, our usual southern swell windows will remain somewhat inactive.. 

The only area of interest looks to be one of my favourite flukey swell sources - south-west gales exiting eastern Bass Strait. They probably won’t develop until late Saturday, so expect tiny residual surf across most coasts all day, ahead of a possible kick in short range S’ly swell on Sunday.

These kinds of south swells often favour the Mid North Coast, so we could see windy 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets but smaller surf elsewhere. I’m not expecting much activity in SE Qld either. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update. 

Next week (July 19 onwards)

Sunday’s local S’ly swell will ease early next week, and the long term guidance is suggesting a fairly bog standard frontal progression below the Tasman Sea through next week, providing standard winter south swells for Northern NSW throughout much of the week, though nothing amazing.