NE surge tomorrow, cleaning up from Wednesday
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 22nd March)
Best Days: NE storm surge for Mid N Coast tomorrow. Conditions cleaning up from Wednesday.
Outlook:
- Strong N/NE winds and NE storm surge for Mid N Coast tomorrow
- Conditions cleaning up from Wednesday onwards, although swell steadily easing
- Not much action towards the end of the week
Recap
The main story for the region really is the persistent rain and subsequent flooding for the Mid N Coast. Areas have been inundated with heavy rain in the last 96 hours to 9am this morning Comboyne Public School received 853mm, Mount Seaview 732mm and Kempsey Airport 618mm. That is a lot of rain. Further north it has been wet too with multiple locations receiving over 100mm+ but not as much as the ridiculous amounts that have been inundating the Mid N Coast.
Wave wise it’s been nothing special, generally average onshore surf with a bit of size. There were pockets of lighter variable winds providing some OK conditions but for the most part it’s been meh.
This week
What’s causing all of the rain and onshore winds?
A series of troughs over the east coast are being fed moist onshore winds thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure over the Tasman. The high is positioned in the southern Tasman, slowly edging it’s way east.
The slow moving nature of both the high and the troughs are exactly the problem. The longer they stick around the longer this rain will too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 100mm for anywhere between Port Macquarie and Brisbane over the next two days. This means water quality will only get worse from what it is now.
Winds will finally swing around to something other than the E tomorrow with strong N winds across the region as a low forms off the Mid N Coast.
Technically speaking it is an easterly trough low, not an east coast low. The difference? Well it’s only small but an east coast low moves slower and more parallel to the coast, while this system pushes offshore and south fairly quickly.
These strong winds will create a decent storm surge for the Mid N Coast with waves up around the 6ft+ mark on an already active sea state.
With swollen rivers this could create more concern for low lying areas as flood waters struggle to flow out into the sea.
The rain will finally clear on Wednesday as the easterly trough low takes the rain with it south and offshore.
Wednesday has the potential for decent waves with winds swinging offshore and swell hanging around.
The Mid N Coast will have the largest waves, about 4-6ft early easing to 3-4ft by the afternoon, but with all the rain and subsequent floods you’d have to be super keen to get out there. Ear infections are probably likely so you’ll need to seriously weigh up the pros and cons.
N NSW and SE QLD will have a mix of lingering E swell and a bit of localised NE swell energy from the strong N/NE winds, I’d expect 3ft waves and with W/NW winds there’ll be some options. I’d expect plenty of rain to have fallen leading up to Wednesday so don’t be surprised if the brown water lingers into the end of the week.
Into the end of the week
By Thursday it’ll be around the 3ft mark, smaller further north, more like 2-3ft, with just the lingering E energy from the previous system. Offshore winds will continue making conditions much cleaner.
A coastal trough will create a weak S change along the coast on Friday morning. The swell will only be small though but winds will freshen out of the SW early and shift around to the SE later in the day.
Winds will shift back offshore on Saturday as a stronger S change approaches for Sunday. NW winds and a small S swell will combine on Saturday before a S change approaches on Sunday. Not quite reaching N NSW or SE QLD, instead light NE breezes ahead of it, but with light S winds for the Mid N Coast.
Sunday won’t see much of an increase in swell but the start of the new week could see it rise a bit as a mid period S swell pulses along the coast. It doesn’t look to provide anything of too much substance but it’s a fair way out so let’s just keep an eye on it for N NSW and the Mid N Coast for later in the week.
Comments
Surfed Saturday, sore throat Sunday, now coughing up phlegm. Was it worth it? Yes. Would I do it again? Not this week
What a difference a few days makes. Friday was epic, crystal clear water, bluebird skies and pumping waves on the points till early arvo. Mostly not too crowded except a weird bunch of flouro wearing chicks going over the falls on the dawn patrol. Most fun day for a while.
I am staying out of the water until it cleans up a lot more. Not worth getting ear or eye infection. Stay safe everybody.
Friday was epic? Was that at the sth end of the forecast scope or 600km to the north!!! Ive mentioned this to Stu before but I really think, and Ive been saying this for ages.....the report needs to be split North and South of Byron Bay. Cause being a SCer Im highly unlikely to travel further than 3 hrs south to chase waves...so sth of that has no real relevance particularly with south swells events and may as well be on Mars. Also, to destroy the myth...can it be confirmed the reports are done from SW HQ in Nth NSW at dawn rather than local locations by local surfers? Because reading a cam aint like reading the beach. Not a beeatch just chasing some clarity.
The earliest one for the SC is 100% not reported from eyes at a SC beach, not sure it ever has been. Same for the arvo one. Only the 2nd morning update. And for the past week or few weeks, none of them have been. The PridLESS replacement seems away or has left.
PridLESS probably got jack of copping endless heat from crew over his reports. I reckon he was pretty classic, albeit sometimes frustrating with the frequent 11am updates over the 8am cus he was frothing out surfing too much haha.
You’ll get radio silence on such questions, I’m afraid. Also regarding any new cameras that are installed. The engagement is very selective
+1 spookypt.... Its too big and too dynamic an area to lump together. Also......How long has the moffats cam been out now????
Was it Pre- covid???
Years. Pointless even having it listed.
I thought there were a few crew down that way who kept sabotaging it.
Yes well I have asked several times. Come on James tell us.... I'd rather just know than be lead to think its something/someone else. TBH I have considered changing to SL because Im frustrated with the broad distance it covers (I mean really on the SC do i really care about what Coffs is doing??!) but Ive just checked SL PB report and according to it its 8-10 feet and NNW. SIGH.
James won't be allowed to tell you.
I can fly to Lady Elliot or Norfolk in the time it takes me drive to Coffs so why not chuck that in there too?
lol true
I think for the money paid by qld members(remember this was a free service only a few years ago) we deserve the forecast lines to be re-jigged.
How about newcastle is struck off the sydney forecast and create a newcastle to byron, while the qld forecast includes down to byron(honestly dont care if we draw the forecast line at the border)?
Still a 300k plus stretch of coastline but more fitting to the qld surfer. I bet that is where a significant amount of paying members reside also(qld). Swell forecast would be more relevant... Especially the winter sth swells where sizes and conditions differ greatly between say coffs and the sc...
Ben and his team brought me so much to date that I cannot see Swellnet any differently that a good mate delivering amazing insights and forecast 3 times a weeks, for less money that I spend on surf petrol.
I would not be comfortable in criticising their forecast work other than in a very positive and constructive fashion.
Keep on the good work team, please never retire or sell your venture!
From an ethical perspective, should the forecast areas be defined according to who is paying the most or to serve as many non wozzle surfer as possible at the most reasonable possible cost?
We've all got our gripes at some stage, which usually flare up most when the surf is shit, the forecast is out or not hitting our area like it does others. But money paid should definitely be bottom of the pile shouldn't it? Less than 25c a day for three reports a week is pretty good value I reckon. Been spending every second week up the sunny coast this year and alot of time last year, plenty of time whilst growing up in my teenage years. While I'm up there it's hard to begrudge a surf reports lack of regional detail for what is essentially south swell frustrations (Moreton/Nstraddie) or shitty regional winds when 2 hours south is offshore and working. Classic opportunity cost of living in a somewhat less populated surf zone. When I'm up there, the blinkers are on as its painful looking at cameras anywhere south of the spit. The Goldy to Coffs region is where I think the real nuance and complexity lay and Ive had the same issues and voiced them. I reckon sunny coast crew know which spots to hit depending on the days conditions, a forecast won't change your plans will it?
If you've lived somewhere more than 2 cycles you shouldn't need more than swell/tide/wind readings to have a good idea what's going on where. I think the SC should be dropped off forecasts altogether ;-)
Yes there is NO surf on the Sunny Coast AT ALL so just head south to the MNC. Thats where all the action is... and the report remains essentially relevant to that area too so double bonus!
+1 sprout.
probably takes even less time than that to figure out how where you live works. The boys I surf with in wurtulla/Kawana never have issues and wouldn't give up where they live for the Goldy or anywhere south for anything in the world. Perspective probably. They ask me regularly when I'm moving up full-time but it's just not for me quite yet and I got a good thing going helping mum and dad out with their joint in Buderim. But one day in the next few years I'll pay that opportunity cost for the SC living as house prices are now officially out of control everywhere down this way.
Yeah housing is much the same here, add a few hundred K and sell it in a week, 500k now being 7-800k etc. People getting booted from $500 rentals to be re-listed at $1000, crazy times. Population has very noticeably increased specifically in the last 2-3 years, I wouldn't wait too long but you make whatever work hey. It's always going to be less crowded than whatever you're used to on the Goldy!
Too true. Sunny Coast is easy to figure out, lived there for four years, always got waves, never needed a surf report specific to the SC. No car then either (still at school) so driving around searching wasn't an option. Before internet too, all there was was the TV weather the night before. Choose a spot then ride 45mins or so on a pushy. If you get it wrong then you've learnt something for next time.
@ben harding so rather than offer advice on how to improve a service, ur suggestion is that said service is not needed..... Cancel the subscription and let another little aussie business collapse? Any coastline is an easy read when ur familiar with it.... But thats not the point. Why am i paying to read about a town 700ks away?
I pay for a service and that service should be relevant to my area..... And also be delivered in a timely manner.
Im talking to u pridless.....
Haha, boogie. I've got no idea why you pay for what you pay for. I didn't suggest the service is not needed either, didn't mean to imply it too. The sunny coast is always tricky man and unfortunately swell goes straight on by sometimes. I more meant make do with what you've got or if it's too big an issue don't surf or move further south (drastic, I know).
Ur not making sense ben. Im not suggesting swellnet is responsible for the shitty surf or south swells.... But if ur going to advertise a product.....talk to the people ur marketing to. One sentance out of an entire forecast doesnt cut it. Like i said.... A forecast which includes port macquarie is hardly relevant to the sunny coast.
Make do??? Just be happy with whats given to u??? Geez i hope ur not in business with that attitude.
As for moving south.... No chance! Happy here thanks.
You do you mate.
seal rocks to Byron makes more sense.
but otherwise thats a great idea.
Split forecast won’t make the waves any better on SC , but at least I’ll feel like I’m getting what I paid for. Bom, Seabreeze, Wave Monitoring all give a heads up, but the Swellnet comments and Forums are a goldmine of knowledge.
Radio silence...I used to pay but found it was a farce. Weather reporting is 60% correct sometimes. People been asking for SC report for months and get nothing. Just saying....
guys, I'm interstate travelling at the moment, hence the "radio silence" (been on the road a lot over the last few weeks and months, hence one of the reasons James is on the forecast bench). I've got an almost-finished article that details our entire surf report structure - how it's evolved over the last twenty years, where it's at now, and what our plans are for the future - that I'll finish in my spare time over the coming days, and publish next week when I get back. In the meantime, I gotta jump back into the rental car and get to a meeting!
I believe you're meant to go with 'but right now I have an important international call to take" ;)
Gee, people were a bit edgy during all that rain by the look of this thread.
Sounds like a few on here live on the right bit of coast to be spoon fed "baby food" forecasts (thanks FR). One of the joys of surfing is working it out for yourself. SN gives more than enough info to make a decision on where to surf, your enjoyment of which is based on your expectations.
Any studies/journals on type of bacteria and levels that are flushed thru river systems into the ocean after rain events? Is it as bacterially suss as it looks or are we just looking at the fluvial sand from upstream? I have never gotten sick but plenty of anecdotes of people who have.
You might find some info here:
https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/water/beaches/beachwatch-water...
Ta mate, will have a read this eve
really hard to say.
I said in another thread, this is the third/fourth minor flood this summer.
we've basically been surfing in "dirty" water all summer.
no reports of ear, throat or nose infections from my homies.
Yeah none from me and mine either. It seems to be the crew that dont surf much at all who bring up how risky it is more than anyone else. Surfed next to a river mouth this arvo, it was the clearest part of the beach strangely. Up and down the beach was rank but not right next to it.
Gave me a minor throat/sinus bug for the last week.
Ears have been fine though
Fair enough Lostdoggy. That article pops linked pretty much confirmed the general consensus that it's probably not a good idea if you're worried. But each to there own.
Thankyou empty lunchy.
It was on all day hey.... Lower tide was best. Soft onshore over the past 2-3hrs... Still surfable tho.