South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 24th February)

Best Days: Longer period E swell Tuesday next week. Otherwise just a weak E trade swell. 

Recap: Last of the E/SE swell from that low in the Tasman provided 2-3ft waves, smaller for SE QLD. Was nice early but E/NE seabreeze filled in later in the day.  

Outlook:

• 2-3ft SE swell easing today and into Thursday 
• Weak 2ft E swell filling in for the end of the week and into the weekend
• E groundswell filling in late Monday into Tuesday delivering inconsistent 3-4ft sets bigger for Sunshine Coast, smaller for Mid N Coast 
• Potential 4-6ft S/SE swell later next week 

Into the Weekend

After what seems like non stop swells since December we are entering into a relatively quiet period. The last swell certainly moved some sand around and it’ll be interesting to see what the banks are like with smaller swells for the next few days. 

The E/SE swell will ease today leaving us with just a weak E trade setup to generate waves for us. I wouldn’t expect much more than 2ft from this setup but it’ll be consistent, lasting from Thursday until the start of next week. 

Wind wise there’s a bit of to and fro. Generally winds are light and variable. A bit more NE on Friday before a weak S change pushes up into the Mid N Coast on Saturday, although never really arrives to SE QLD. Sunday and Monday will see a return to light and variable winds with an E/NE trend. 

Fairly uneventful really. Mornings will be best and if you can’t get out in the morning be sure to head to the suitable corners once the afternoon sea breezes are in. With the small E swell there’ll be waves just about everywhere, they just won’t be anything special. 

I guess compared to the past few weeks there’ll be far more options. A lot of spots have been maxed out. This certainly won’t be the case with plenty of options for smaller waves on the cards. 

The New Week

The start of the week won’t bring too much change initially and the change that comes later on Monday will be something that you’ll have to be patient for. 

A tropical low, referred to as 94P at the moment, a fair distance to the E/NE of New Zealand will intensify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. It will send off a pulse of E groundswell due to arrive late Monday in the form of a very inconsistent 3-4ft E swell. I’d expect some power in these sets when they arrive but there’ll be some time between sets and mixed in with the more localised, weaker E trade swell. 

Had this low been closer to our coast we could’ve expected a solid 8ft+ swell out of the E. It has just had to travel too far and by the time it arrives it will have lost it’s peak energy. 

Now due to the positioning of the low the Sunshine Coast is likely to see the most of it with the waves in the 3-5ft range. Further south the Mid N Coast will see be seeing less of the size more on the lower end of 3-4ft. For N NSW and the Gold Coast expect something in between. 

In terms of conditions mornings will be best. Monday will see E/NE sea breezes. Tuesday will see a S change move up the coast, hitting the Mid N Coast by midday, N NSW by the evening and filling in along SE QLD by Wednesday early. These S winds will continue into the end of the week so southern corners will be the pick. With the inconsistent but solid E swell there should be some decent options around. 

The S change and an associated low will squeeze the isobars against the coast delivering persistent S winds and a relatively solid new S/SE swell around the 4-6ft mark. It will be far more consistent than the E groundswell but it won’t fill in everywhere. Southern corners and SE QLD will see far less size but mixed in with the fading E groundswell it will fill in the long lulls from the E sets. All a bit long range so take it as a guide and we will have an other look at it on Friday.