South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 15th February)

Best Days: Wednesday and Saturday/Sunday for protected spots (offshore along GC) 

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S to SE to E winds for much of the week with building SE swell tending ESE trade swell, becoming solid
• Mid period pulse on Wednesday, hitting 6ft, another pulse Thursday/Friday more like 4-5ft+
• Low drifts down along QLD coast on weekend generating larger chunkier conditions and biggest swell for the weekend, 6-8ft+ late Sunday/Monday
• Easing Tuesday could be the pick with more options available

Recap:

It’s the calm before the storm along the Mid N Coast, Nth NSW and SE QLD today (Monday) as generally smaller waves with a S to SSE wind swell delivered modest wave heights. Winds were lighter earlier before a stronger SW to SE flow filled in along the entire coast, a good day to get everything ready for the week that is about unfold.

This Week

Well, what a week we have on our hands. Strong S to SE winds are going to blow pretty much the whole time slowly shifting more and more east as each day goes on. You’ll be getting to know your southern corners well, otherwise becoming accustomed to chunky onshore waves. 

A ridge of high pressure set up over the Tasman is being squeezed by a low over NZ and associated trough off the NSW coast, driving these persistent winds to our coast and generating a stormy SE/ESE swell for the first part of the week. 

The first decent pulse will come through on Wednesday, generated from these persistent SE winds ramping up as the ridge interacts with the trough off the Nth NSW coast. It’ll peak just over 6ft but with winds remaining strong SE it’ll just be protected southern corners that have anything decent.  

The next pulse will arrive late on Thursday into Friday morning as an easterly trade flow sets up. This swell will be more ESE originating from winds north of NZ intensifying as the ridge interacts with a low that shifts away to the east. This second pulse will be a bit smaller more like 4-5ft and winds are also going to have more E in it when they arrive meaning there won’t be many places with clean conditions.

Into the Weekend

This is where it gets a bit more interesting with a large 6-8ft+ swell to hit our coast later this weekend (most likely peaking Monday). A low is set to drift down along the QLD coast and intensify on Saturday. Strong winds out of the S will mean southern points will be the only surfable options.

Intense gales along a slim section of the S and SW flank of this low will be the source of this hefty swell. The fact that swell heights were already up around 4-5ft+ you add this system to the mix and we easily get the largest wave heights of the week. 

It’s important to mention that this system being so close to our coastline will produce a pretty raw swell but with winds out of the S rather than SE or ESE, southern corners and protected points will have relatively clean conditions compared to what was experienced for most of the week. 

Unfortunately the peak size of this swell is likely to max out most locations along the coast. The best option for the majority of spots will probably be on the backside of this swell as conditions ease a bit and become more manageable for more spots along the coast.