South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th December)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• N'ly winds slow easing from the south from Tuesday
• Steady, peaky mix of fun trade swells all week
• Size building Fri, peaking Sat, easing Sun
• Windy in SE Qld through the peak of this swell, much lighter in Northern NSW
• Return to N'ly winds Sun/Mon/Tues

Recap: Light morning winds have freshened from the NE both days, bumping up small leftover surf across most regions though there’s been a small undercurrent of new E’ly trade swell in SE Qld, holding at the bottom end of forecast expectations wth peaky 2ft+ sets on the Sunny Coast, smaller south from here. Certainly nothing special.

Peaky trade swells at Coolum today

This week (Dec 29  - Jan 1)

A reasonable ridge is building through the lower Coral Sea, and will extend out across the Northern Tasman Sea over the coming days. This will be a useful source of E’ly swell for most coasts (2-3ft) though it’ll be biggest in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf south from about Yamba. 

The main factor to work around this week will however be the local winds. 

An approaching southerly change that pushed across Southern NSW today is the main reason for today’s northerly flow, though the change is weakening across the Mid North Coast and will result in broad troughiness across Northern NSW and SE Qld from Tuesday through Wednesday.

There’s still a risk for northerly winds to persist on Tuesday (mainly the morning, except for exposed eastern capes), though this will likely be north of Yamba - the Mid North Coast should enjoy light winds from the get go.

On Wednesday we’ll start to see two points of coastal consolidation within the broadscale trough - the Mid North Coast, and the Central Qld coast. A tightening of the pressure gradient on the southern flanks of these enhanced troughs will freshen E/SE winds, which will in turn lead to an increase in short range swell. 

The southern trough will only favour the Mid North Coast for surf, with building size to complement the pre-existing E’ly swell with 2-3ft sets (the combination of the two swells may result in a slight exaggeration of surf heights). Wave heights and light variable tending E/SE breezes will ebb and flow for the rest of the week in and around this size range, and wind strength, apart from late Friday when we’ll start to see a little more size as the trough starts to consolidate. 

The Central Qld trough won’t really come into play until the end of the week, as it’ll be located outside of our swell window for the next few days. So, expect similarly peaky surf to persist across the Northern Rivers and SE Qld from now through Thursday morning. 

However, light winds on Wednesday and early Thursday will start to freshen E/SE into Thursday afternoon and Friday as the trough moves south, and this will build local E’ly swells into the 3-4ft+ range by the end of the week. However, with the accompanying E/SE breeze there will only be a small number of protected locations to surf north of the border. 

However, winds shouldn’t become too much of an issue south of about Ballina (they should be lighter and more variable for the rest of week), so there’ll be a broader spread of surfable options across Northern NSW, compared to SE Qld. The downside is that the weaker winds means a little less size than up north, but there’ll be more than enough to go around.

This weekend (Jan 2 - 3)

The weekend should have plenty of surf though winds are looking a little fruity. 

Wave heights should plateau into Saturday as the Mid North Coast trough starts to fill in under the influence of a stronger high pressure ridge through the Tasman Sea. This will initially ease the onshore flow however we’ll see northerlies redevelop on its backside as broad inland low pressure trough eventually merges with the Mid North Coast trough, pushing out into the western Tasman Sea by early next week. This is pegged for Sunday (and Mon/Tues).

As such, Saturday is the day to surf this weekend with peaky 3-4ft+ swells from several sources in our eastern swell window, biggest in the north, a little smaller in the south.

Expect a little less size on Sunday as the northerly picks up - it’ll be strongest on the Mid North Coast, but most coasts will become adversely affected at some point (earlier the better on Sunday, if you have to surf). 

Next week (Jan 4 onwards)

Monday and Tuesday look to be bumpy under a northerly flow. This is a shame not only because of persistent E’ly swells, but also a decent SE swell from a stalled-front-cum-closed-low off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island (see below). South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up inconsistent 3-4ft sets, everywhere else will remain smaller i the 2-3ft range. 

The SE swell will ease through Tuesday but the E’ly swells should persist for most of the week. Wednesday looks like heralding a change in pattern as a southerly change moves up the coast, with a new Coral Sea ridge in its wake providing S/SE breezes for the rest of next week and the weekend. So, flag the start of next week and aim for the second half. 

See you Wednesday!