South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th November)

Best Days: No great days. Maybe a few small peaky beachies Sat a'noon (Mid North Coast) and then Sun (elsewhere). Maybe Mon AM for early light winds and a small, inconsistent E'ly swell too. But not worth worrying about.

Recap: Small residual swells and northerly winds have resulted in minimal surfing opportunities over the last few days. 

Small bumpy leftovers on the Tweed this arvo

This weekend (Nov 14 - 15)

No change to the weekend forecast. We've essentially got no new swells of any note on the way.

Freshening northerly winds today will generate peaky N’ly winsdswells on Saturday, but conditions north of Ballina will remain wind affected all day as the northerlies persist.

South from Ballina, we’ll see a gradual improvement as a coastal trough influences the region from the Mid North Coast, spreading northwards through the morning. There’s still risk of northerly winds across all locations, though it’s more likely to be NW here and we’ll eventually see variable winds settle into most regions south from Yamba by the early afternoon. This may allow for a small peaky afternoon session at the open beaches but won’t expect much more than a slow 2ft wave at north-facing swell magnets. 

The trough should then push across into the Northern Rivers and SE Qld overnight, bringing light variable winds to most regions, then possibly a return S’ly flow into Sunday at some point (though likely to be confined to a hundred kays either side of the border, with light variable winds tending onshore elsewhere). 

Model guidance has the northerly flow persisting off SE Qld into Saturday night but then easing steadily through the early hours of Sunday morning. This means whatever local windswell we pick up through Saturday will be on the downwards trend by first light Sunday, so you’ll have to make the most of it. Most beaches will probably struggle with 1-1.5ft of weak surf but a handful of exposed north facing swell magnets may see early 2ft+ sets if we’re lucky. 

Expect smaller size south from Ballina from this source on Sunday.

The trough won’t have any trailing strength on its southern and western flanks, so south swell prospects are minimal at best.

Sunday afternoon may see small pulse of mid-range E’ly swell from a weak trough in the north-eastern Tasman Sea, but I’m not expecting much surf (as has been the case all week). If we’re lucky we’ll pick up a few slow 2ft sets. Again, keep your expectations low. 

Next week (Nov 16 onwards)

The only notable feature for next week is a building ridge across the coast from late Tuesday thru’ Wednesday that’ll freshen S/SE winds across the region.

However, the won’t be much surf on offer. 

Sunday’s late E’ly swell may persist into Monday morning with inconsistent 2ft sets at open beaches, before easing through the day. Early light winds will freshen from the NE through the day as a trough approaches from the south. 

A series of strong fronts trailing the trough through into the lower Tasman Sea will be poorly aligned but they’ll kick up a couple of days of useful south swell for Northern NSW - but unfortunately, local winds will create problems at the beaches picking up any size. This swell should provide 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron on Wednesday, easing Thursday, but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere and SE Qld won’t pick up much more than a coupe of stray 2ft sets at exposed northern ends. 

The mid-week coastal ridge looks pretty uninteresting too, even for SE Qld - maybe some weak 1-2ft waves across the outer Gold Coast points if we’re lucky.

The rest of the long term outlook looks equally drab with nothing of any great interest to get excited about.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!