South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th August)

Best Days: Sat: reasonable S'ly swell in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld) with winds out of the south. Probably better Sunday morning with light variable winds, though easing in size. Still only small in SE Qld too. 

Recap: Easing S/SE swells from Wednesday didn’t offer anything outstanding on Thursday, though beaches with good southerly exposure saw fun leftover 3ft sets in the morning with light winds and clean conditions. Most of SE Qld remained very small though there were the odd little peelers across the outer Gold Coast points, and at south swell magnets. Today has seen a small pulse of new S’ly swell push up the coast, offering 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW and conditions were clean through the morning ahead of freshening sea breezes after lunch. Surf size has remained small in SE Qld. 

Friday morning southerly lines at Coffs Harbour

Odd small peeler at Currumbin this morning

This weekend (Aug 29 - 30)

A strong front has pushed into the Tasman Sea, though it’s expected to last only short period in our swell window. Consequently we'll see one day of solid south swell, on Saturday. 

Winds are expected to freshen from the south across northern regions, thanks to a building ridge through the Coral Sea, so this will favour sheltered locations - and they’re going to be considerably smaller thanks to the swell direction. We will see an early period of SW winds in most regions and the Mid North Coast shouldn’t become quite as blowy as its northern counterparts so there’ll be workable options throughout Northern NSW. 

Expect south facing beaches south of Byron to reach a bumpy 4-5ft+ through Saturday, much smaller elsewhere in the 2-3ft range, and across SE Qld we’re looking at a small start, building towards a late peak in the 2ft+ range across the outer Gold Coast points, bigger though wind affected in the 2-3ft+ range at south swell magnets and northern ends. Broadly speaking, expect smaller across the Sunshine Coast. 

SE Qld should also pick up some small SE swell from the ridge in the Coral Sea though it won’t amount to much. 

Wave heights will trend down into Sunday, though SE Qld is likely to benefit a little more thanks to a slight swing in the swell direction around to the S/SE. This should maintain 2ft+ waves at outer points, and the Sunny Coast should see a little more oomph in the swell (compared to Saturday) though lingering S’ly winds may create problems at exposed beaches, and protected spots will be much smaller. 

Most locations south from the Gold Coast should see early variable winds ahead of freshening afternoon NE breezes, and with occasional 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron early morning (smaller elsewhere in the 2-3ft range) there should be some OK waves before lunch. However, size will be on the downwards trend so don’t leave it too long. 

Next week (Aug 31 onwards)

Monday generally looks pretty small with residual energy from the weekend padding out open beaches. 

However, although the models aren’t showing it well, a small pulse of long period south swell is expected to glance the Southern NSW coast on Sunday afternoon, reaching Northern NSW on Monday, and south swell magnets south of Byron may pick up slow, inconsistent 2ft+ sets if we’re lucky. 

Expect smaller surf elsewhere, including a mix of minor trade swell up to 1-2ft. Early light offshore winds will maintain clean morning conditions. 

Yet another strong, though rapidly eastward tracking front will push into the lower Tasman Sea on Monday morning, bringing a southerly change and a brief flush of south swell to Northern NSW on Tuesday. Average 3-4ft sets are possible at south facing beaches south of Byron but I’m not confident there’ll be anything amazing, and most beaches will be much smaller, including SE Qld. Wave heights may persist into Wednesday morning but it'll certainly be easing through the day. 

We’re then looking at a period of smaller surf and freshening N’ly winds from Wednesday into Thursday, with swell energy sourced from the local northerly fetch, plus some background S/SE swell from trailing fronts in the Southern Ocean. 

It's also worth pointing out that a couple of mid-latitude systems in the South Pacific are modelled to develop throughout the forecast period but they currently look to be too small, and track unfavourably to the east, to benefit our surf potential. I will keep a close eye on them next week though.

Otherwise, the general outlook for the foreseeable future remains a little bleak, especially considering the excellent winter of waves we’ve had across most coasts. So, keep your expectations low and make the most of these short term southerly swells. 

See you Monday!