South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st September)

Best Days: Sat: strong though steadily easing S/SE swell with generally light winds. Biggest in Northern NSW, much smaller in SE Qld. Sun: early window of clean beachies in Northern NSW. Only small in SE Qld. Mon: peaky N'ly windswell with winds tending NW in most regions, at laeast for the AM. 

Recap: Wednesday’s small east swell hung in through Thursday morning before being overtaken by a solid building S’ly swell that peaked across most regions this morning. South of Byron Bay, south facing locations saw solid 6-8ft sets though surf size was smaller elsewhere due to the direction. We’ve seen 3ft surf across the outer SE Qld points; they’ve been the best choice with gusty winds from the south. Buoy data is mixed across the region; some locations have seen an easing trend since last night (Coffs, Byron) whilst others have maintained size all day today (Tweed, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Mooloolaba, and most interesting of all - Crowdy Head).

This weekend (Sep 2nd - 3rd)

It’s a relatively straight forward forecast for the weekend - easing S/SE swell from this point onwards, with light variable winds for much of Saturday, freshening from the north Sunday.

This means Saturday is by far and away the pick of the weekend.  

SE Qld will see much smaller surf size than Northern NSW but early morning should still pick up some leftover runners across the outer points around 2ft+. There’ll also be a small, intermittent E’ly swell in the mix that’s been present for the last few days, though it won’t have very much size. 

Exposed northern beaches on the Gold Coast should see larger waves around 3-4ft but it’ll be smaller across the Sunny Coast right across the board. Wave heights will ease right across the region during the day; moderate sea breezes may bump things up after lunch but they won’t be too strong. 

Into Sunday, expect very small surf across the SE Qld outer points and inconsistent 2ft+ sets at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. The minor leftover E’ly swell may still just hang in there but I can’t see a lot of size from it. Winds should be NW early morning but they’ll freshen from the north from mid-late morning onwards, creating bumpy conditions into the afternoon, so aim for a dawnie. 

South of the border, we’ll see more size but with similar conditions. South facing beaches are likely to be overpowered at first on Saturday - around 3-5ft across the Mid North Coast and up to 4-6ft between Coffs and Byron - but it’ll ease throughout the day by a couple of feet. Again, expect light offshore winds in the morning and light to moderate afternoon sea breezes. 

Sunday morning should have some workable options between 2ft and maybe 3ft at some exposed south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere) but it’ll ease throughout the day and N’ly winds will freshen from mid-morning onwards, becoming gusty into the afternoon (model data has 25kts+ across the Mid North Coast). As such there’ll probably be some low quality windswell in the mix late in the day too.

Next week (Sep 4th onwards)

Monday is still a tricky call across the region.

A strong front pushing through Bass Strait on Sunday will swing to the wind to the NW across much of NSW, but only up to a certain point where the ridge will hold steady, maintaining a N’ly flow north from there into Southern and Central Qld. Additionally, the region where this transition will occur will probably be somewhat flexible - for example, model guidance has NW winds across SE Qld early morning but a renewal of gusty N’lies through the afternoon.

In any case most beaches should see some small N’ly windswell to start the working week thanks to Sunday's freshening northerly flow maintaining strength overnight. Wave heights will be biggest at exposed north facing locations, where we’re looking at 2ft, maybe some 2-3ft sets if we're super lucky. We may see small regions of concentrated energy slightly higher than this - perhaps the Tweed/Gold Coasts  - but I’ll reassess over the weekend as the model guidance firms things up. However, beaches not directly open to the north, or susceptible to any kinds of shadowing, will be much smaller.

So, the Mid North Coast has the best conditions potential for Monday with light offshores all day, but further north - especially SE Qld - we’re at risk of persistent N’ly winds. Though, it’s likely that we’ll see a NW flow for a brief period at least in the morning. This will hoepfully produce some fun lefts running down a handful of well exposed beaches. However, it's a low confidence and I wouldn't put to much time and effort into chasing waves. 

The N’ly windswell will then ease across most of Northern NSW into Tuesday, but if the offshore northerly fetch persists through Monday (as currently modeled), we should see some small short range wind waves holding across the Gold/Tweed Coasts (and to a lesser degree, the Sunshine Coast and Northern Rivers) into early Tuesday morning, maybe some inconsistent 1-2ft sets at exposed spots and tiny surf elsewhere. However, it will certainly ease throughout the day. Conditions look pretty good with light offshore winds in most areas, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up about any major quality on Tuesday either.

As for our southern swell window, we won’t see any action here for the first few days of the week. The SE swell will be all but gone by Monday and a strong front pushing through Bass Strait on Sunday will have a touch too much north in its orientation to favour swell production for the NSW coast. 

However, a much more vigorous front crossing the SE corner of the country overnight Monday and into Tuesday looks a little better positioned for our coast.

It’s still a knife-edge fetch with the main flow exiting eastern Bass Strait expected to be very west, but we may see a building S’ly swell very late Tuesday (more so Southern NSW than Northern NSW), reaching Northern NSW through Wednesday, bolstered by its lengthy duration and a strong secondary front approaching from the south-west. There is certainly a chance that the weekend’s model update could tweak Tuesday’s fetch in our favour (and bring about some potential for a late increase in S’ly swell across the Mid North Coast perhaps). If I see anything of interest I’ll update in the comments below.

Otherwise, Wednesday and more so Thursday are looking at another unusually acute, though stepladder progression of building south swells across Northern NSW. Model guidance isn’t liking this system yet (but I am!) - I reckon we’ll see 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron on Wednesday morning building to 3-4ft during the afternoon, and up to 3-5ft on Thursday, probably holding through Friday morning too. However the steep southerly direction will create much smaller wave heights at protected locations. 

These swells don’t often favour SE Qld so expect tiny surf everywhere away from a handful of south swell magnets throughout this period. Conditions will be generally clean most days with offshore winds in Northern NSW, tending light and variable across the Far North Coast and into SE Qld. 

Friday afternoon will probably see easing S’ly swells and offshore winds but next weekend’s currently on track for a very large S’ly groundswell thanks to a large polar low projecting through our southern swell window later next week. More on this in Monday’s update.