South-east Queensland and Northern NSW  Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd August)

Best Days: Thurs: fun beachbreaks as S/SE swells ease. Only small in SE Qld, best at exposed northern ends. 

Recap: Looks like my Monday forecast was an undercall for yesterday (across the Mid North Coast) and today (entire Northern NSW coast) with sets around the 6ft+ mark - apologies! This was primarily due to the Tasman Low being a little stronger and closer to the coast than modelled - I detailed this yesterday in the comments section of Monday’s Notes, but I’ve been on the road since and haven’t had time to follow up in the interim (however, I did somewhat flag this potential in Monday’s notes, saying “the initial push of the swell front could result in a couple of hours of more consistent activity up front on Wednesday”). Anyway, in general SE Qld was only a little bigger than expected today, but more importantly the southern Gold Coast points delivered fun, if somewhat inconsistent waves in the 2ft+ range, with 4ft sets at exposed northern ends. Size was a little smaller on the Sunny Coast; still tiny at southern ends but northern ends were pushing 2-3ft. 

This week (August 3rd - 4th)

Righto. Although the last 36 hours came in bigger than expected, I’m not expecting Thursday to over-perform in the size department. We’re already seeing a steady easing trend across the NSW buoy network, however south facing beaches should still pick up some decent sets through the morning. 

The trend will be slowly downwards during the day, with the biggest waves expected at south facing coasts between Byron and about Coffs (the swell trend will dry up from the south, so will therefore impact the Mid North Coast earlier). Expect early 3-5ft sets here around dawn, abating to 3-4ft by lunch and then maybe a little smaller into the afternoon. It’ll be smaller south from Coffs, and also smaller at beaches will less southerly exposure. 

North the border, today’s nice flush of S/SE swell should still continue to produce good waves at exposed northern ends (inconsistent 3ft GC, 2ft SC) but outer points will be much smaller and even less consistent - and many beaches probably won’t have much rideable at all. Expect smaller surf into the afternoon here too. 

Across all regions we can expect early light offshore winds on Thursday, with developing N/NE winds through the afternoon, becoming fresh across the Mid North Coast. 

Overnight Thursday, we’ll see fresh and gusty N’ly winds develop parallel to the coast. This should generate a small N’ly windswell for exposed coasts, however the Gold and Tweed Coasts - most exposed to these short range swells - will have a weaker fetch upstream so I don’t think we’ll see much size here (a weak 1ft for the dawn patrol Friday, maybe 1-2ft at a couple of spots). The fetch will be stronger further south but I am dubious of any windswell potential in Northern NSW either. 

As such, Friday will mainly see easing S/SE swell from Thursday (occ 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron at dawn, easing to 2ft or less during the day), and it’ll be clean across most beaches with moderate to fresh NW winds. 

The only other new energy expected on Friday is a small pulse of E/SE swell in the afternoon, originating from a thin fetch of gales exiting western Cook Strait developing today. This will be aimed towards the Southern NSW coast, which means - for our region - the Mid North Coast will see the most size potential (mid-late afternoon sets around 2ft), with smaller surf to the north. Keep your expectations low. 

This weekend (August 5th - 6th)

We have no new swell for the weekend.

A series of strong fronts passing across the SE corner of the country have been aligned a little more NW, which is well and truly outside of our swell window.

As such, Saturday morning will offer the best surf of an ordinary bunch. We’re actually looking at a peak in mid-range E/SE swell from the fetch exiting western Cook Strait, but there won’t be much size on offer and it’ll be very inconsistent too. Exposed beaches across the Mid North Coast should see some occasional 2ft+ sets, but it’ll be smaller north from about Coffs Harbour, and there’ll be long breaks between waves - many beaches will dip out completely in the surf department. 

An easing trend will probably develop into the afternoon, but it’ll be clean with mainly W/NW winds. 

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday though with even smaller, less consistent surf. Many beaches will probably become flat. So, make the most of Saturday’s beach breaks, especially in the morning. 

Next week (August 7th onwards)

The models have weakened the primary low linked to the weekend’s strong frontal systems, and instead of suggesting a large fetch generating strong southerly swell next week, we’re now looking at the possibility of several smaller, speedy fronts passing through our swell window.

This doesn’t completely write off the chance of surf next week but it does mean that the swell source will be more flukey and intermittent. 

Early indications are for a small increase on Tuesday from the south (2ft+ south facing beaches south of Byron), with a bigger push around Wednesday and Thursday that should reach 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron.  

Elsewhere, there are a few fleeting systems that develop inside our eastern swell window, but they aren’t expected to hang around for very long and are thus a low potential source of energy next week. More on this in Friday’s update.