South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Ben Matson (issued Monday 13th February)

Best Days: No great days in SE Qld due to mainly small swells and tricky winds. Plenty of S'ly swell in Northern NSW this week but you'll have to work around the winds. Wed/Thurs/Fri mornings are the pick of the period (maybe Tues AM on the Mid North Coast). Next Wed onwards: chance for a solid long period E'ly groundswell, peaking next weekend. 

Recap: Friday’s fantastic E’ly swell eased into the weekend, though managed to maintain wave heights at the upper end of the forecast spectrum all weekend. Winds were good early at the beaches both mornings with light NW breezes but freshening northerlies created problems throughout the day. A late S’ly change on the Mid North Coast (gusting 91km/hr at Coffs Harbour around 9pm!) then pushed across the remaining Northern NSW coast overnight, reaching SE Qld in a weakened state throughout this morning with more SE in its direction. Surf size was small and weak this morning with a combination of residual E’ly and building S’ly swells, though no major size has been reported across the Mid North Coast as yet (however Southern NSW has seen 4-6ft sets at swell magnets). Winds have eased right back across the SE Qld and Mid North Coast but it’s still a little windy across exposed regions in Far Northern NSW. 

This week (Feb 14th - 17th)

The south swell that built across Southern NSW today should broaden its presence across Northern NSW on Tuesday, however the fetch wasn’t favourably aimed for this region so surf heights will probably come in a little smaller than what was reported down south. 

Reliable south swell magnets south of Byron may see some 4-5ft sets but they’ll be somewhat wind affected, though mainly in the north thanks to a slow moving trough of low pressure off the SE Qld coast.

Expect much smaller and less consistent surf at beaches not completely open to the south.

Winds will be lighter across the Mid North Coast but another approaching southerly change will eventually merge with the trough to the north, pushing moderate SE winds across most regions during the day. There is certainly a chance for light SW winds early morning though, south of about Yamba. 

Across SE Qld, the new south swell really won’t make much of a presence but we’ll see some short range SE swell from the local trough. The fetch isn’t very wide nor very strong so it’s unlikely that we’ll see a lot of activity across the outer points, and winds will be unfavourable at most open beaches (moderate to fresh SE). There is a chance for isolated regions of early light SW winds but this will probably be confined to the southern Gold Coast. Expect bumpy 2-3ft surf at exposed northern ends and smaller, weaker waves elsewhere. 

Wave heights will ease from both sources on Wednesday and winds should abate rapidly to become light and variable with sea breezes. South facing beaches south of Byron should see early 3-4ft sets but it’ll be smaller elsewhere. North of the border, open beaches may see occasional 2ft sets but it’ll be smaller and difficult elsewhere. 

A weak ridge forming through the central/northern Tasman Sea from Tuesday should maintain small peaky SE swells across open Northern NSW beaches through the second half of the week. Sets should hold around 2ft+ through the second half of the week from this source, with slightly smaller surf across SE Qld. 

Additionally, a weaker secondary polar low and front related to the system generating tomorrow’s swell (the low positioned around 62S, 157E this morning) is driving another pulse of S’ly swell that’ll fill in throughout Thursday and Friday across Northern NSW. It’s not a particularly strong fetch but it’s well placed within the swell window, and I think the models are undercalling the potential from this source.

You can however see the swell periods draw out slowly from about 191 degrees from Thursday (12.4 seconds) then ease back into the high 11 second range through Friday as the swell direction backs to more of a straight S’ly direction. Set waves will be very inconsistent but south facing beaches should pick up straight 2ft+ sets at times.

Otherwise, a modest E’ly fetch developing just south of New Caledonia late Wednesday and into Thursday could provide a late pulse of E’ly swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW late on Friday afternoon, though no major size is expected (peaky sets in the 2ft+ range). 

Winds should be light and variable with sea breezes in most areas to finish the working week - so open beaches wil be your best option.

This weekend (Feb 18th - 19th)

There’s a couple of sneaky swells on target for the weekend.

However, it’s worth pointing out that freshening northerlies are expected across all regions ALL weekend - strongest across the Mid North Coast - so apart from potential brief periods of early light NW breezes, it’s hard to get excited about the weekend’s surf prospects. 

As for new swells - over the last month or so I have detailed a small region of the ice shelf S/SE of New Zealand that’s harboured stationary polar lows. And it’s expected to flare up again over the coming days with a small but very tight fetch of 40-50kt+ winds. 

This should generate a minor S/SE groundswell exhibiting 15+ second peak periods, arriving on Saturday afternoon across Northern NSW and holding into Sunday.

Again, confidence is never high for these remote swell sources but reliable south swell magnets could see very inconsistent 2ft+ sets at times. I’ll reassess on Wednesday with the benefit of hindcasting and satellite winds.

Otherwise, Friday’s possible late E’ly trade swell should maintain inconsistent 2ft+ sets across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts all weekend, with smaller surf south from Coffs. It’s not a particularly strong fetch but I do like its slow westward track. I’m slightly underplaying surf size here as the models are only calling 1ft+ so let’s see if the models allow for a slight upgrade on Wednesday.

But, all of this could go largely to waste though if the projected northerlies kick up. Saturday morning is probably the pick of the forecast period with a better chance for early NW winds but I’ll reassess on Wednesday.

Next week (Feb 20th onwards)

There’s a heck of a lot of swell on the cards for next week. 

Locally, we have a number of crucial ingredients starting to take shape in the Southern Tasman Sea - a broad, slow moving surface trough close to the mainland, an approaching upper level trough and cold pool from the west, plus an infeed of tropical moisture from an active monsoon passage across the northern part of the country and also the tropical South Pacific. This could result in a major swell generating system in the Tasman sometime early to mid next week, though it may not necessarily benefit either Northern NSW or (especially) SE Qld coasts. 

However, of much more interest to us - this same tropical pattern is expected to spawn a tropical low (and/or possible tropical cyclone) in and around the Fijian region over the weekend, which should evolve into a significant E/NE swell machine by early next week, favouring a large swathe of the East Coast of Australia. At this stage we could be looking at a solid long period E’ly swell arriving some time around the middle of next week and building towards a peak the following weekend, maybe persisting into the start of the adjoining week. 

However it’s still very early days so specifics are much too broad to assess, but there’s certainly plenty to look forward to in Wednesday’s and Friday’s Forecaster Notes.