South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st February)

Best Days: No great days due to a combination of small swells and northerly winds. Hopefully the building trade swell next week will coincide with better winds, though this is more likely in SE Qld than Northern NSW.

Recap: A small trade swell built across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW yesterday, and a brief period of light winds around dawn offered fun clean waves across most open beaches this morning (max size around 2-3ft across the Sunshine Coast, smaller elsewhere). However the northerlies were up again by mid-morning and they’re continuing to cause problems across most coasts this afternoon. Surf size is smaller across the Mid North Coast.

This week (Jan 31st - Feb 3rd)

In Monday’s notes I wryly noted that the model guidance had forecast nine consecutive days of northerly winds for the Mid North Coast, up until next Tuesday. However, I hadn’t taken into account that the Saturday and Sunday prior experienced northerlies, so in actual fact it was eleven consecutive days. 

But lo and behold - with today’s update we’ve seen this northerly forecast blow out until next SATURDAY. That’s another eleven days of northerlies (counting today), and - if it eventuates - will total FIFTEEN consecutive days of the devil wind. 

So with that cheerful assessment of the coming week and a half, let’s look at the swell for the coming days. 

Today’s small trade swell will ease into the rest of the week, maintaining somewhat lacklustre 1-2ft surf across open beaches north of about Yamba, and smaller surf elsewhere. The Sunshine Coast may scrape in a few bigger sets early Thursday but for the most part expect smaller surf than what we’ve seen today. 

The northerlies will become gusty about the Mid North Coast but they’ll be lighter across SE Qld, allowing for brief periods of early NW winds.

So yeah, not a lot happening. 

This weekend (Feb 4th - 5th)

A small lift in trade swell is expected over the weekend thanks to a slight strengthening of the broader wind field through Friday and Saturday, but no great size is expected. As per our recent run, the Sunshine Coast will pick up the most size, building from 2ft on Saturday to 2-3ft during Sunday but it’ll be smaller as you head south from Brisbane. 

There’s very little south swell expected over the weekend although late Sunday afternoon may see a few stray sets from the S/SE across the Lower Mid North Coast, originating from a stationary polar low anchored in the same position as a series of similar polar lows in recent weeks. However the small fetch length and large travel distance will keep a lid on surf size and consistency. 

I’d be surprised if we saw much more than a foot or two late in the day at south swell magnets south of Coffs Harbour (and remaining Northern NSW coasts on Monday), however it’s worth mentioning that the models have the swell building to 0.4m @ 15.7 seconds by 6pm, which suggests a little more size than that. Let’s wait and see how the ASCAT pass looks on Friday. 

As for conditions, expect moderate N’lies across the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW region, and fresh northerlies across the Mid North Coast. There’s a chance for a period of light variable winds early morning (mainly SE Qld) but it’s a low percentage game. 

Next week (Feb 6th onwards)

Monday should see a peak in S/SE swell across Northern NSW swell magnets, originating from the polar low. At this stage I’ll peg size at an inconsistent 2ft+ at south facing beaches, but will await satellite confirmation over the coming days. 

The main feature next week is a building E’ly swell from a stationary trade flow stretching from New Caledonia through the South-western Pacific to waters north-east of New Zealand.

This fetch will be positioned a little further east than is ideal for our next of the woods (synoptically, this is also a contributor to the prolonged northerly spell) but we should see a reasonable amount of size build slowly towards a peak around Wednesday or Thursday. At this stage I’m expecting 3ft+ sets across the Sunshine Coast, 2-3ft sets on the Gold and Tweed Coasts and slightly smaller surf across the North and Mid North Coasts. Expect smaller surf early in the week prior to the mid-week peak.

As per my comments earlier, model guidance maintains northerlies up until about Thursday across the Mid North Coast though we may see this pattern break down across SE Qld a little earlier (say, Tuesday or thereabouts). So there is some hope that mid-next week’s peak in swell will coincide with somewhat reasonable beachbreak conditions north of the border. 

Tune in Friday to see whether things have improved!