South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th January)

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Best Days: Fri: early clean conditions at a south friendly beach. Not much in SE Qld. Sun: Fun, solid S'ly swell at south facing beaches south of Yamba. Small waves in SE Qld. Mon: smaller mix of swells with early light winds, best suited ot Northern NSW. 

Recap: Tuesday’s tricky south swell briefly punched above forecast expectations, with 3-4ft sets across the Tweed Coast and the odd 6ft bomb at south facing beaches south of Byron. However it had already begun to ease across the Mid North Coast where sets were barely 3ft in Coffs Harbour (down from 4ft the night before). By the afternoon most locations had eased back to a fraction of their morning glory. North of the border, and south facing beaches across the Gold Coast saw occasional 2ft+ sets early on but it was tiny everywhere else, and the Sunshine Coast didn’t pick up much energy at all throughout the day: quite the spread of size right across the region. Winds were light offshore early but swung fresh NE throughout the day. Today we’ve seen very small residual swells and freshening northerly winds.

This week (Jan 19th - 20th)

Now that the ocean has settled down from the recent southerly swell energy, we can start the forecast with a clean slate.

A gusty southerly change will push across the Northern NSW coast overnight and should reach the border close to dawn Thursday. It won’t have much length trailing behind so it’s unlikely that we’ll see much of an increase in size through Thursday, however the parent front much further south - pushing through the lower Tasman Sea - is quite strong and broad and will generate a bigger S’ly groundswell that will reach peak on Friday.

Most of Thursday will therefore see building short range S/SE swell across Northern NSW (3ft+ south facing beaches by the afternoon?) with smaller 1-2ft surf at open beaches in SE Qld. I’m doubtful there’ll be anything of major quality, especially along the protected points which will offer the cleanest conditions.

Late Thursday afternoon should see the leading edge of a new S’ly groundswell across the Mid North Coast, originating from the parent front. Most south facing beaches below Byron Bay should see a peak around 4-5ft throughout Friday and winds are expected to become early light NW ahead of a freshening N’ly throughout the day. These afternoon winds will be strongest across the Mid North Coast (gusting 20-30kts late in the day) though the S’ly swell will also be easing by this time. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

The southerly swell won’t really get into SE Qld beaches very well but we will have a small secondary E/SE swell from a brief ridge developing through the lower Coral Sea overnight Thursday. The combination of these swells should generate slow, peaky 1-2ft sets across most Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast beaches, with exposed northern ends and south swell magnets picking up occasional 3ft sets. 

Conditions will be clean here early Friday morning for a reasonable spell but we won’t be immune from the developing northerly so make the most of the early smooth conditions. 

Lastly, also in the water on Friday - exclusive to Northern NSW - will be an unusual long range S/SE swell generated by a modest polar fetch that developed south of New Zealand over the weekend. This was the bottom flank of the same long that delivered the erratic Tues S’ly groundswell. However, the large travel distance and the moderate wind speeds means we probably won’t see much than an underlying 2-3ft from this source, and it’ll largely fill in beneath the bigger short period swell. 

This weekend (Jan 21st - 22nd)

We’ve got a tricky weekend ahead. 

Friday’s south swell will ease rapidly across the region into Saturday morning. South facing beaches south of Byron may see early 2-3ft sets but elsewhere it’ll be much smaller and size will diminish from this source during the day.

A gusty S’ly change is expected to have reached the lower Mid North Coast by dawn and should be into Far Northern NSW by mid-morning, the Gold Coast around noon and the Sunshine Coast mid-afternoon. The parent low to this change - a low forming east of Bass Strait on Friday - is expected to drive southerly gales through an acute region of our short range swell window. They won’t be very well aimed so we’ll end up seeing a wide range of size as the swell reaches a peak from late Saturday (lower Mid North Coast) into early Sunday (remaining Northern NSW coasts). 

Therefore, at this stage Saturday looks like a write off with small swells across most regions and bumpy, unattractive conditions at those coasts picking up an increase in new S’ly swell. 

Sunday looks much better. Not only will we see a peak in S’ly groundswell across Northern NSW (3-4ft+ sets at swell magnets, smaller elsewhere) but the pressure gradient across the coastal margin should relax from Yamba to Sea Rocks, allowing for early offshore winds. The Ballina and Byron coasts are likely to see lingering S/SE winds so the only surfable options will be at protected locations.

Across SE Qld, we won’t see much S’ly groundswell away from the swell magnets, but a  building ridge through the Corsl Sea should generate some short range SE swell for open beaches around the 2-3ft mark, with smaller 2ft waves across the outer points (grading smaller as you work your way down the line). It’s not a great outlook for Queensland surfers but given the local winds these locations will be the best of an ordinary lot.

Next week (Mon 23rd onwards)

Multiple swell trains will contribute varying degrees of surf to the region on Monday. 

Sunday’s S’ly groundswell (Northern NSW) and small SE windswell (SE Qld) will largely abate into the start of the week. 

However, we’ll see a secondary S/SE groundswell build across Northern NSW (it may show late Sunday across the Mid North Coast). This will have originated from the distant polar fetch mentioned above (for Fri), which is expected to remain active all week, though positioned a little closer to the ice shelf. Again, no great size is expected from this source and there’ll be very long breaks between the sets, but reliable swell magnets south of Byron Bay may see occasional 2-3ft bombs.

I'm not expecting much size in SE Qld from this source; south swell magnets may pick up a few stray 2ft sets but other than that it'll be very small.

This swell should hold into Tuesday before easing through Wednesday and Thursday. 

The same polar swell source is actually expected to reach a peak in strength this Saturday, which is expected to generate another pulse of fun S/SE swell for later Thursday (Mid North Coast) and Friday (Far North Coast).  At this stage no major size is expected and the increasing travel distance will only further space the time between sets. However swell magnets may pick up some 2-3ft sets. 

Otherwise, there are no other notable systems standing out in the long range charts.

See you Friday!