South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 2nd September)

Best Days: Sat: peaky NE swell with developing offshore winds (best across the beachies, around lunch/early arvo). Sun: building S'ly swell in Northern NSW with offshore winds. Mon: small clean south swell across the Mid North Coast. Tues onwards: building trade swell across SE Qld and Northern NSW, solid by the end of the week.

Recap: Small residual swells Thursday with a freshening northerly breeze. These winds have strengthened into today, generating a peaky NE windswell that’s producing low quality 2-3ft surf at NE facing beaches this afternoon. 

This weekend (Saturday 3rd - Sunday 4th)

No changes to the weekend forecast.

As I discussed in Monday’s and Wednesday’s notes, we’ve got a strengthening northerly flow off the coast that’s related to a trough of low pressure over inland NSW. The trough is tracking SE, and is due to form a tight surface low off the Far South Coast early Saturday.

The strength and longevity of these northerly winds is quite impressive, and fortunately the timing of the associated westerly change is still on target for Saturday lunchtime. This is a good outcome for surfers as an earlier arrival of westerly winds - say, overnight tonight - would concurrently shut off the swell supply, and lead to a more rapid downwards trend throughout tomorrow.

Wave heights will be largest at NE facing beaches on Saturday, mainly around the Far Northern NSW region but there are some caveats here - surf size will probably be a little smaller across the Sunshine Coast (due to the shorter fetch length) and any beach not directly exposed to the north will also see smaller surf. It’s probably a little hard to get your head around these points, as these synoptic setups are uncommon and we’re more used to southerly swells producing a wide range of wave heights (so, Saturday's outcome will see opposite effects across many coasts). 

But for the most part, most open beaches should have good waves on Saturday with peaky swells pushing predominantly left-handers down the coast. Winds should start to swing NW early morning, so although there’s likely to be some leftover northerly wobble at exposed beaches, surface conditions will be on the improve. The best conditions are expected after lunch once the wind swings straight W’ly.

Also - it's worth keeping in mind that W'ly winds blow up the face of many of the points, and with the peaky NE swell they're not likely to be in top form. This swell will really be suited to the wide open beachbreaks, so spread out up and down the coast and find some A-frames to yourself. 

As for size, we can expect anywhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft at suitably exposed north-facing beaches, with smaller surf at remaining beaches around 2-3ft. Surf size will probably ease a little into the afternoon though no great size loss is expected until overnight. 

On Sunday, conditions will remain clean with mainly offshore winds out of the west. The N’ly swell will be almost gone so it’s likely SE Qld beaches will be very small.

Across Northern NSW, a new S’ly swell is expected to build during the day; initially starting from a small base at most beaches - especially in the north - but south facing beaches should reach 3-4ft throughout the afternoon.

This swell will have been generated by the Far South Coast low that’s modelled to develop on Saturday; also in the water on Sunday will be some reinforcing S’ly swell originating from a trailing SW fetch around the northern flank of Saturday's Far South Coast low during the day. 

Wave heights will be much smaller at beaches not open to the south, and in addition to an early-mid afternoon arrival across the Far North Coast (ie expect smaller residual surf early), we’re unlikely to see much action across SE Qld from this source, due to a poor fetch alignment. Exposed south swell magnets north of the border may pick up a few stray 2ft sets very late in the day but I wouldn’t expect anything notable at most beaches.

Next week (Monday 5th onwards)

Broad W/SW winds across the lower Tasman on Sunday in the wake of the South Coast low will maintain plenty of south swell to start the week, probably somewhere in the 2-3ft+ range across south facing beaches in Northern NSW. Remaining beaches will be much smaller and SE Qld coasts will continue to see tiny wave heights away from south swell magnets. 

A new ridge is expected to develop across the Qld coast on Monday, and this will slowly begin to generate short to mid-range SE swell for the region over the coming days. The associated freshening SE winds will bump up most open beaches north of Byron Bay from Monday onwards (not that it matters much with tiny surf in the water to begin the week). 

Otherwise, conditions are looking pretty good across the Mid North Coast on Monday with light winds and sea breezes. 

Small but persistent long period S’ly energy is then expected across Northern NSW through Tuesday and Wednesday, originating from a broad but poorly aligned storm track through the Southern Ocean over the weekend. The saving grace of this progression is its width, plus the strength of the surface winds (leading to higher swell periods) which should help to boost wave heights at south swell magnets. Our surf forecast model is bottoming out during these days in its latest run, but I think we’ll see very occasional 2ft+ sets at reliable exposed beaches facing due south. Let’s take a closer look on Monday to see if we can pinpoint the exact arrival times of each pulse. 

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking a little better for SE Qld with a slow increase in trade swell expected to provide small runners along the outer points. Surf size should reach 2ft+ on Tuesday and 2-3ft+ by Wednesday afternoon (a smidge bigger across the Sunshine Coast, but smaller south of Byron) and winds will remain out of the E/SE.

The good news is that this ridge is expected to remain anchored across the region for the rest of the week, and is forecast to become quite strong. The upshot being a slow but steady increase in trade swell throughout the second half of the week, that could see some solid waves across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches by later Friday and Saturday - possibly somewhere in the 4-5ft+ range. 

Anyway, until Monday - have a great weekend, and hopefully you score some tidy beach breaks!