Mixed bag of surf this weekend; smaller easing swells next week

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th July)

Best Days: Sat: tricky outlook: chance for some fun outer points in SE Qld, and good waves at protected spots/points in Northern NSW with a strong easing S'ly swell and small easing E'ly swell. Winds could become problematic in SE Qld though. Sun: chance for a few pockets of fun waves at protected Sunshine/Gold Coasts spots, in and amongst the onshores. Sun: easing fun S'ly swell in Northern NSW.

Recap: Fun long period E’ly swell across SE Qld with 3-4ft sets at times. A second S’ly swell pushed up the Northern NSW coast during Thursday, holding into today with strong 4-6ft sets at exposed south facing beaches (smaller surf elsewhere). Winds were SW across Northern NSW on Thursday, tending S’ly throughout the day in SE Qld. Today they’re remained SW across Northern NSW but have swung more S/SE at times in SE Qld.


Fun Snapper early Friday afternoon

This weekend (Saturday July 16th - Sunday July 17th)

The final southerly pulse in this recent series is pushing up the Southern NSW coast today and will peak overnight or early Saturday across Northern NSW. It will trend downwards both days but the first few hours of Saturday morning should still offer 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches ahead of the easing trend. The Mid North Coast may already be in declining wave heights by this time though.

Our current E’ly swell will also trend downwards throughout the weekend, following a broad, if somewhat inconsistent plateau in size today.

Early Saturday morning should see occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches and some outer points across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (smaller to the south), with this swell source slowly abating into the afternoon and further into Sunday. Expect long breaks between the bigger waves.

The weather wildcard for the next few days has defied my expectations from earlier this week, and it looks like we have a weekend of funky winds upon us throughout SE Qld, thanks to a deepening surface trough just off the Capricornia coast today. 

In any case, this system will strengthen E/SE winds about adjacent coasts over the coming 36 hours, however wind speeds will tail off with increasing southerly latitude. The strongest winds feeding into this trough are expected to be too far north, and too close to the coast to benefit the Sunshine or Gold Coast regions in any major capacity (re: surf generation), so I’m keeping my expectations pretty low for any notable swell from this source. 

Unfortunately, we’re still looking at a fresh E/SE flow about the Sunshine Coast but I’m hopeful for pockets of SW winds about the Southern Gold Coast at times. Otherwise, expect mainly moderate onshore winds at exposed regions down to about Byron Bay, with southerly tending variable winds south to the Mid North Coast.

This means that for SE Qld surfers, the only clean locations will be those offering protection from these winds. And it also looks like the fetch length won’t be sufficient enough to generate any meaningful short range swell for the coast - we may see 3ft+ peaky E/NE building later Saturday and through Sunday at open Sunshine Coast beaches (a little smaller on the Gold Coast, and nought south of Byron), but it’ll mainly be low quality energy thanks to the associated onshore airstream. 

There are a few exceptions though, being NE facing beaches and protected points north of Brisbane, which will pick up the E/NE swell reasonably well and should also offer some protection from the wind. But we’re literally talking about maybe one or two worthwhile locations at best on Sunday

Otherwise, it looks like a fun weekend of easing south and east swell across much of the Northern NSW coast, especially south of about Ballina to the Mid North Coast. 

Next week (Monday July 18th onwards)

Not much happening for next week. Our eastern swell window will remain quiet, and the trough to the north of SE Qld will ease rapidly into Monday, with concurrently easing wave heights. 

Some SE Qld beaches may see early 2-3ft sets on Monday (mainly Sunshine Coast) and with some luck we’ll be back to terrestrially-influenced early morning offshore winds. But there’s a fair chance for some surface contamination from the weekend’s onshores so keep your expectations low. Expect smaller easterly swells with increasing southerly latitude. 

We’re also looking at continuing abating south swells next week across Northern NSW too. The weekend’s easing trend will continue into Monday and Tuesday (becoming very small by the latter), and a minor glancing south swell due Wednesday probably won’t contribute much more than an inconsistent 2-3ft at exposed south swell magnets. It'll be tiny elsewhere.

Winds look pretty good south of the border; light NW tending moderate W’ly on Monday then variable Tuesday ahead of a freshening N’ly Wednesday that may create a few problems away from protected northern corners. NW winds are then expected on Thursday and Friday with small residual south swells, as a weak trough develops along the coast. Current indications are that it won't be much of a swell producer for us, but I'll take a closer look at this on Monday.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 15 Jul 2016 at 4:06pm

Some small runners at Kirra this arvo, looks fun!

Hirsty's picture
Hirsty's picture
Hirsty Friday, 15 Jul 2016 at 6:04pm

So what's the go with the 3.1 metre East swell that's still on the Sunshine coast forecast page for Sat and Sun??

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 15 Jul 2016 at 6:29pm

Wow, another small upgrade. Surf model is calling 6ft but (at this stage) I just can't see double overhead surf from this system, as the primary fetch is modelled to be well north of the Sunshine Coast, aimed away from the region, with max surface wind speeds of 35kts. Either way (and as alluded to in the notes) with the likely ESE winds there will be only one or two surfable options on Sunday. However if the models keep slowly upgrading they could be pretty good.

_benno's picture
_benno's picture
_benno Friday, 15 Jul 2016 at 6:44pm

We might get to surf with 150-200 of our closest friends!

Oh for a quiet beachie somewhere....

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Friday, 15 Jul 2016 at 8:15pm

Agnes baby! but 600 clicks for a surf for 2-3 foot relatively uncrowded perfection is still a bridge too far....still worth a thought if it means not getting run over. No pun intended. Guess it's all in perspective right.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Friday, 15 Jul 2016 at 8:19pm

In all seriousness Ben what's your call for Agnes Sunday?

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 16 Jul 2016 at 12:55pm

My obsession with Agnes is getting the better of me. When will I learn it takes a gigantic NE cyclone swell to come to life. And when it does I do solemnly swear to get evidence. Even if the local long boarders beat me with a frozen mackerel.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Saturday, 16 Jul 2016 at 1:55pm

Dromo, you seriously need to study geography, bathometry and swell direction mate. You will make long drives and burn shitloads of fuel and $ for nothing with your assumptions for Agnes.

And the days of "relatively uncrowded perfection" is about 10 years too late. Any sniff of a swell over 1/2 to 1 foot has every man and his dog from Rocky to Hervey Bay descending in droves..........enjoy.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 16 Jul 2016 at 3:59pm

Tannum sands is looking ok though... I understand it as all just bay waves, but so is Waimea right? I haven't seen one surfer all day. Back in my day I would drive six hundred kays no worries for that slop. Farm Life.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 16 Jul 2016 at 6:59pm

The trough is too far north for Agnes. But looking at emu park wave bouy, Yeppoon is the go. Unfortunately Tannum sands is the farthest surf cam north. If anyone is interested Gladstone Port Authority has surf cams. Check 'em at high tide.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 16 Jul 2016 at 8:55pm

Nice waves in Northern NSW this afternoon.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 12:38pm

Gawd, Noosa looks very uninspiring this afternoon.


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lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 1:30pm

Surely there's more gratifying hobbies to take up on the sunny coast than enduring that.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 1:39pm

Hi Ben

Has there been any change on Monday's predictions since Friday? Hoping for shoulder high waves on the tweed tomorrow morning with clean conditions

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 6:40pm

Should be ok tomorrow. This afternoon had head high peaky ENE energy with light onshore winds, was reasonably fun. Light winds expected tomorrow with slowly easing swells.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 6:32pm

All I can say about Noosa being uninspiring, I was thinking the same thing...Till Sheepy got in my head. I just want to say a big thank you to SD. I can't believe 4 of us in the water. some 4 foot bombs.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 6:57pm

4 people at Noosa? Or did you surf somewhere else? (No need to mention locations)

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 7:54pm

End of the road. I thought I was somewhere else! didn't look good I suppose from the lookout even, paddle out looked harder then it was. But some nice wide sets, got a couple long runners. Some chick was taking photo's, I nearly thought of asking her for a couple to corroborate my story. Did five run runs but just could't believe what lemmings people have become! The old dog's know it. I can understand now Donny getting upset, but sheeet. Are people getting lazy or what?

the chase's picture
the chase's picture
the chase Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 9:22pm

Some times SD says more then he should hahaha.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 17 Jul 2016 at 10:51pm

Only sometimes? ;)

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Monday, 18 Jul 2016 at 7:07am

I was out there to, DD, nice empty walls,on a Sunday to boot. Actually wasn,t too bad further in either. Nice little swell really,despite the forecast.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 18 Jul 2016 at 8:20am

It's all about the direction up there. And it was closer to the swell source too, which meant it saw a little more size than coastlines further south. Had a feeling it could be worthwhile this weekend though obviously couldn't mention it in these notes.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 18 Jul 2016 at 8:18am

Smaller surf today on the Tweed Coast, looked around 2ft to me though wouldn't have been surprised if there were a few sneaky 2-3ft sets. Pretty weak/lacklustre stuff though. Light winds and a wobble through the lineup.