Lots of south swell on tap for Northern NSW
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th September)
Best Days: Fri AM: good south swell in Northern NSW with early offshores (not much in SE Qld away from the swell magnets). Sat/Sun: plenty of south swell but tricky winds (early mornings best option, particularly Saturday). Don't expect much in SE Qld. Next week: continuing south swell.
Recap: Small average swell combo with N’ly winds on Tuesday, with a building south swell across south facing beaches in Northern NSW today (and a smidge of leftover N’ly windswell in the north). Much better conditions today too.
This week (Sep 18-19)
Let’s get a few things out of the way first up.
Queensland surfers - you’ve got very little surf on the cards for the entire forecast period, unless you have access to a good south swell magnet. Either that, or a good set of wheels that’ll take you south of the border. There’s a possible small windy trade swell lining up early next week but I’ll detail that below (it’s hardly worth getting excited about though).
It’s a different story for surfers in Northern NSW. We’ve got an extended period of strong frontal activity expected through the Tasman Sea, and this will generate back-to-back south swells from Thursday right through until early next week.
Right now, a strong front is crossing the southern NSW coast and it’s expected to form a low east of Tasmania overnight. This will generate a broad, strong SW fetch well offshore from the South Coast that’ll whip up a solid south swell for the region.
Although not favourably aligned for the East Coast, we should still see a reasonable amount of swell spread back into the mainland, building throughout Thursday towards a peak on Friday.
Thursday’s upwards trend should reach 3-4ft at south facing beaches in the Mid North Coast by late afternoon (likely to be smaller in the Far North), however Friday should maintain steady waves around 3-5ft at most south facing beaches for much of the day (expect smaller surf at locations not open to the south). Even south facing beaches on the Gold and Sunshine Coast should manage occasional sets in the 2ft+ range at times from this source on Friday.
Wind wise, we’re looking at moderate to fresh SW winds on Thursday tending S’ly throughout the day. So, not a great accompaniment to a building south swell (although there may be a small window of opportunity early morning, with residual south swell from today). Friday morning looks much better with light W/SW winds in most regions ahead of a light to moderate afternoon sea breeze.
So, Friday morning is certainly the pick of the next few days. Choose your south swell magnet accordingly and get in early for the best surf.
This weekend (Sep 20-21)
Two more cold fronts are expected to race through the lower Tasman Sea to provide swell for the weekend. The first front will track NE of Tasmania on Friday morning (providing southerly swell for Saturday), whilst a vigorous trailing front on Saturday morning will ensure plenty of southerly swell for Sunday.
At this stage, local winds are looking a little dicey from Saturday afternoon thru’ Sunday under a moderate to fresh S’ly breeze. However, Saturday morning should see early W/SW winds in most regions up until mid-morning, and even Sunday morning may offer a small window of early SW winds. Saturday morning is certainly the pick of the weekend though.
Size wise, the entire weekend looks similar to Friday at this stage - fluctuating somewhere between 3ft and occasionally 5ft right at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with smaller surf at remaining locations. Again, I’m not expecting much size at all in SE Qld however south swell magnets north of the border may pick up a few stray 2ft+ sets at times. Elsewhere in SE Qld, expect very little surf. I'll tighten up the specifics in Friday's notes.
Longer term (Sep 22 onwards)
SE Qld will see a small short range SE swell building from late Sunday onwards, peaking Monday with possible 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches, in association with a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea. however, those locations picking up this size will probably be quite wind affected. So keep your expectations low for now.
Elsewhere, yet another cold front is expected to rocket through the lower Tasman Sea on Sunday, providing a new S/SE swell for the region for Tuesday (probably a tad smaller than the weekend, perhaps inconsistent 3-4ft at south facing beaches in Northern NSW).
Looking further ahead, and although there are no definitive weather systems standing out in our immediate swell windows in the longer term, model guidance does point towards a continuation of strong polar activity well south of the Tasman Sea next week, which suggests a continuation of moderate southerly swell through the back half of next week. More on this in Friday’s update.
Comments
Ben, SN very often says things along the line of “Sth swell = Nth NSW will have waves”. What do you mean by Nth NSW because as you know it’s a big place. You may be right if you’re referring to Sth of Byron, but is rarely right on the Tweed, where no one gets too excited about a southerly swell. Goldy surfers head “Sth of the border” only to see lumps on the horizon, swell sailing past, or if it is big and long enough to get in, the headlands/points are sweepy, and the beachies too straight. Not having a go at SN, which I think is tops, but thought that this might help save a bit of disappointment and fuel. Thanks very much for the reports.
Nice to have you on the site Boater, thanks for the comments.
Well of course - there's a lot more Northern NSW south of Byron than north.
From my end, it does become somewhat tiresome to constantly have to qualify each and every individual statement in every detailed surf forecast (for example, the fact that Noosa doesn't pick up anywhere near as much swell as other SE Qld points, under all swell directions except E/NE) - so I often draw the line at what would be a reasonable assumption by regular readers.
And in this case by saying 'south of the border', I'm inferring the fact that SE Qld surfers will need to get in the car and drive south to score waves (rather than: "the good surf starts immediately at the border").
For what its worth, there are a handful of excellent south swell magnets on the Tweed Coast (that I'm not going to mention here). Obviously, surf quality is dependent on many factors, (banks, period, tide, wind etc) however in the three years I lived on the Goldy I would regularly score filthy waves at many of these spots under southerly swells, when much of the Goldy Coast was unrideably small.
I can see how my 'south of the border' statement might be interpreted though, so perhaps I should change it to 'south of Byron' and then add in a qualifying statement that the Tweed Coast will be somewhere between (ie smaller than Northern NSW, but bigger than the Goldy).
I understand that some people might not get excited about south swells on the Tweed (it's a similar vibe here on the Northern Beaches!), but my job isn't to just wait for, and forecast great swells events - I'm a frother and I want to know anything and everything that's going to be happening in the surf zone over the next week or more. I just hope that the people who read these reports share my enthusiasm for all kinds of surf conditions.
Also - south swell magnets for Gold Coast surfers are not confined to being 'south of the border' either. Again, without mentioning specifics, I suppose it comes down to whether surfers are prepared to put in the miles or not.
How far south do the SE QLD/ NE NSW forecasts cover. Yamba? Mid North Coast? Hell of a lot of miles/Hrs if you cover down past Coffs/Port Mac.
Boundary point is Seal Rocks (I frequently reference the Mid North Coast in my notes).
BTW, I'm not suggesting a Brisbane-based surfer would have to travel to Port Macquarie to get wet. The point is that highway miles will be required under some swell patterns.
Great thanks Ben, agree with and understand what you said
Cheers for that.
"SE Qld will see a small short range SE swell building from late Sunday onwards, peaking Monday with possible 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches, in association with a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea. however, those locations picking up this size will probably be quite wind affected. So keep your expectations low for now"
Man.... Anything over 2ft+ north of Caloundra should be grabbed with both hands between now and December...... Don't count it as "surfing"..... Count it as "fitness insurance"......
"save a bit of disappointment and fuel. " it only has to happen once to realise it doesn't it?
judging how crowded sth of byron already is, i woulda thought it is pretty common knowledge and doesn't need to be any more specified here
Banks all got washed out in the August swell bombardment.
Been a few Noahs spotted around the Byron-Ballina stretch past couple days, Luckily not much swell and more people in the water.
Yep continuing GWS sightings....keep eyes peeled and don't surf the back banks alone.
freeride.... with the greatest respect, any local news re' autopsy?
Haven't heard anything.