Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 17th October)

This week through next (Oct 18 - 25)

Our large SW tending S/SW groundswell was just that with it filling in very strongly yesterday and holding this morning. Winds have been a little dicey and not ideal for those breaks that usually fire in the trades.

From now into the weekend we’re looking at a slow easing trend as the swell tweaks more S/SW in direction. The current funky S-S/SW winds will swing back more S/SE from tomorrow with E/SE-SE trades from the weekend. Winds do look to go back more S-S/SW later next week but more on this next week.

The low point is still expected to be Monday morning, with a mix of mid-period S/SW and long-period SW swells due to then build into the afternoon ahead of a peak Tuesday.

These swells, discussed on Tuesday will be similar in size with the mid-period energy generated by fetches of strong W/SW winds to the south-west of Western Australia yesterday and today, with the stronger but inconsistent groundswell generated by gales south-east of South Africa on the weekend and earlier this week.

The models are incorrectly combining the swells so read below for the expected size. The easing trend will be slow thanks to persistent trailing frontal activity, with the next swell due to arrive out of the S/SW Saturday, but it only looks moderate in size.

Otherwise the outlook is slow with the reliable trades starting to loosen their grip on the region as we start transitioning towards the monsoon season.

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Maldives: Easing levels of S’ly groundswell and SE trade-swell are continuing across the region.

Our fresh pulse of S/SE trade-swell energy for Saturday now looks weaker with a slight downgrade now on the cards.

We should still see a little bumpy of SE energy Friday afternoon and Saturday, easing Sunday.

Otherwise, the strong low southeast of South Africa has generated some new S’ly groundswell for later Saturday but more so Sunday with a peak due through the day. It looks moderate + in size and will be worth capitalising on.

The SE trade-swell should start to show again later week thanks to a re-establishment of the swell generating trades early next week. Energy from this source at this stage only looks small to moderate in size but check back here on Tuesday for any upgrades.

Eastern Indonesia:

Swell slowly easing into the end of the week/weekend.

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW swell building later Monday, peaking Tuesday to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing slowly Wednesday/Thursday.

Smaller, reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell Friday to 3-5ft.

S/SE winds tomorrow with E/SE-SE trades from the weekend (variable offshore each morning). Winds going back more S-S/SW later next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing S/SW swell over the coming days.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell building Monday afternoon, reaching 6ft, easing slowly from a similar size on Tuesday.

Weaker S/SE-SE winds tomorrow across southern locations, lingering through the weekend and early next week (lighter and more variable to the north). Variable winds in the south from Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small SE trade-swell building tomorrow to 3ft, holding Saturday a similar size, easing Sunday.

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell Sunday to 4-5ft+ across the southern atolls (smaller Male).

Slowly easing swells into next week.

Building SE trade-swell later next week reaching 3-4ft Friday, easing slowly next weekend.

Fresh W’ly winds tomorrow and Saturday, easing slowly on the Sunday, more variable early-mid week, possibly freshening again from the W/SW late week.