Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 9th May)

This week through next (May 10 - 17)

Some new, inconsistent levels of SW swell are due into later this afternoon but tomorrow will likely provide the most size, going off the trend in Western Australia.

Moderate sized surf is due, but with long waits between the sets, easing slowly into Saturday and more so Sunday.

The surf will bottom out Monday ahead of our next pulses of mid-period S/SW swell into later Tuesday but more so Wednesday next week.

A small, tight low has generated a fetch of W/SW gales on the polar shelf, with inconsistent, moderate sized surf due on Wednesday, easing into Thursday.

A possible larger swell for later in the week has unfortunately been downgraded, with the frontal progression falling apart somewhat. We should still see gale-force winds at polar latitudes, but they’ll be short-lived and W/NW in nature, generating a moderate sized S/SW groundswell for Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. This swell looks a touch better than Wednesday’s but not by much.

Otherwise more moderate sized pulses of swell are due into the following week, with no standout energy on the cards until late month.

Over to the Maldives and yesterday’s good S’ly groundswell is now slowly easing, along with SE trade-swell.

As touched on in Tuesday’s notes, strengthening SE trades immediately east of Madagascar today and tomorrow should generate some moderate sized mid-period S’ly swell for the weekend, easing from Sunday as winds break down on the weekend.

A restrengthening of the fetch later next week should produce some fresh levels of S/SE trade-swell from later next week onwards, but we'll look at this in more detail on Tuesday.

Otherwise longer-range levels of SE trade-swell will pad things out across the central atolls.

The next noticeable pulse of S’ly groundswell is likely late next week, generated by a strong low forming south-east of South Africa, but check back here Tuesday for confirmation on this.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent, moderate sized, mid-period SW swell building late today, peaking tomorrow to 4-5ft, easing slowly Saturday.

Small-moderate sized S/SW groundswell building late Tuesday, peaking Wednesday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks, easing Thursday.

Moderate sized, inconsistent S/SW groundswell building Friday afternoon to 4-6ft across exposed breaks, easing Saturday from a similar size.

Moderate to fresh E/SE trades (weaker next week), variable offshore each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell building today to 4-5ft+, easing from a similar size tomorrow morning.

Moderate sized, inconsistent S/SW swell building later Tuesday, peaking Wednesday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate sized, inconsistent S/SW groundswell for late next week, building to 4-5ft+, easing Saturday. 

Variable winds, tending S/SE briefly through Sunday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S’ly groundswell tomorrow with some new mid-period S’ly swell building late, peaking to 3-4ft on Saturday across the southern atolls, easing Sunday.

Background SE trade-swell to 3ft on the weekend, building to 4ft through early next week (peaking Tuesday), easing from mid-late week.

Easing S’ly swell through next week ahead of a new S’ly groundswell Friday to 3-5ft.

Moderate W’ly winds, strengthening next week.