Indonesia/Maldives forecast April 30
Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 30th April)
This week through next (May 1 - 10)
A good, though inconsistent SW groundswell that’s currently in the water is due to ease back over the coming days, slowed a touch through Thursday but then bottoming out more noticeably into Saturday.
Later in the day Saturday but more so through Sunday, the forerunners of a large, long-period SW groundswell are expected to show, with a peak in size set for Monday.
The source is a distant but strong frontal progression that started south of South Africa and has since projected slowly north-east up into the Indian Ocean. Fetches of severe-gale to storm-force winds have produced forerunners in the 22s period band, filling in Sunday, with the bulk of the swell due Monday morning in the 16-17s band.
The easing trend should be slowed a little into Tuesday/Wednesday thanks to some reinforcing S/SW groundswell spreading off a trailing fetch of W/NW gales, while into Thursday afternoon and Friday, a moderate sized, mid-period SW swell looks to fill in.
Looking at the Maldives and a good mix of S’ly groundswell and SE trade-swell are on the ease, with the strong Southern Ocean frontal progression due to generate a large pulse of S’ly groundswell for Saturday, with a moderate sized pulse ahead of it for Friday.
A healthy SE trade-swell signal should also be in the water all period, thanks to a restrengthening of SE trade-winds through the Indian Ocean today, south of the region, migrating slowly east over the coming week, allowing a greater spread of energy into the atolls.
Looking back to the south, and a secondary pulse of mid-period S’ly swell from another weaker storm firing up south-east of South Africa should arrive into Wednesday afternoon (next week) and peak Thursday, boosting the region back to the moderate + size range.
So all in all a great little period.
Eastern Indonesia:
Inconsistent SW groundswell easing slowly over the coming days, bottoming out through Saturday.
Long-period SW groundswell forerunners arriving late Saturday, building more so through Sunday, reaching 6ft by later and peaking Monday morning to 6-8ft.
Slowly easing swell Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell building Thursday, peaking Friday to 3-5ft.
Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, light and variable each morning. Lighter trades into next week.
Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs
Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:
Easing S/SW groundswell today, further tomorrow, slowed Thursday.
Long-period SW groundswell forerunners arriving late Saturday, building more so through Sunday out of the S/SW, reaching 6-8ft on dark, easing from a similar size Monday morning.
Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for Thursday to 4-5ft.
Variable NW winds tomorrow and Wednesday, variable into the end of the week and through early-mid next week.
Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs
Maldives:
Easing S’ly swell from 3ft+ on the southern atolls tomorrow morning.
SE trade-swell to 3ft tomorrow, easing a little into Thursday.
New S’ly groundswell building Friday to 3-4ft across the southern atolls, with a larger pulse Saturday to 6-8ft into the late afternoon, easing from 6ft+ Sunday.
SE trade-swell building Friday to 3ft+, holding through the weekend, back to 3ft next week.
Reinforcing S’ly swell for Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday morning to 4-5ft across the southern atolls.
Persistent, moderate W’ly winds, strengthening into next week.
Comments
The latest notes are live.
Thanks Craig and welcome back, I hope the 3 of you are healthy and doing well . It’s been pumping up here last 2 days, yesterday was solid 8ft + and looked like hard work for this old fella so I went further down the bay to a more user friendly wave . The winds aren’t the best and we have had some radical storms at night but they don’t last long . This next swell on the 5th looks even bigger .
Thanks Supa! Looks epic. I didn't see the storm linked to the current swell, the coming one is good but I'd expect it to be similar in size. Just because of the extra distance and swell decay?
Couple more from yesterday
where are you superfreak? looks good
I could tell you but then I’d have to ……….. , just a spot far far away .
might run into you. heading over tomorrow to a place west of Darwin
Well I hope that place is pumping , looks to drop off quickly tomorrow for a few days but 5th& 6th should be on , hope ya score some uncrowded bliss .
Im off to Lohis on Thursday, can't wait
Im off to Lohis on Thursday, can't wait
Looks awesome Super. Hard to remember seeing a beach in Indo looking so clean - plastic debris free. Sweet
Toying with an offer of a ments trip next week, but the long range looks really iffy.... Where might one find the link to the LWT charts you often refer too?
They're in house unfortunately, will be on the site in the future.
They say timing is everything. Got up before sunrise and was watching nice offshore with head high and occasionally bigger sets . The storm on horizon told me I better be quick. Unfortunately as I was walking down to paddle out spot the onshore roared in and the only wet I got was from the rain . Win some lose some .
Aghhh.
Ended up getting 2 good sessions in today, wind went around in circles , these storm cells are interesting and you never know what’s going to happen with the wind each day . Predicting the wind must be tough and variable seems the best option .
Supa that left hander you keep taking photos of, is that reef or beachie?
And why is there never anyone on it!?
It’s reef , there’s only 7 of us surfing, the photos so far are just one’s I’ve taken with iPhone and usually before I go for a surf . The photographer leaves on the 4th so I will get a package of him before he leaves and put a few up .
@goofyfooter , here’s a few shots with people on it but not great pictures as like I said, just my iPhone .
I think we need to have a little talk in private supa ;-/
I'll be a fly on the wall! Especially seeing as I'm in trip planning currently.
Hahaha , see you on Lembongan
Late session yesterday, this morning has dropped even more to waist high with occasional headhigh sets with long wait in between. Time to go fishing again .
