Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 4th April)

This week through next (Apr 5 - 12)

Down, down, down.

The swell from the weekend and early week is now declining further with not much on the cards surf wise for the period.

Small levels of background swell will ebb and pulse over the weekend, with the most noticeable being an inconsistent S/SW groundswell for Monday. This isn’t expected to offer any major size but will provide some new energy for the region.

We’re also now looking at the formation of a tropical cyclone to the south of the region on the weekend, and this looks to generate some new S’ly swell for the Bali region from Sunday through early next week, coming in S/SE more towards Java. This will be consistent and moderate in size, while also bringing W’ly winds to the region on the weekend and early next week.

Otherwise, the only other swell of note is a small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell due late next week, generated by a late forming polar frontal system projecting towards Western Australia over the coming days.

It only looks small-moderate in size and inconsistent, even smaller over towards the Mentawais.

Looking at the Maldives, the S’ly swell has continued to ease, with some better SE trade-swell showing it’s head across the region, with it due to peak this evening before slowly easing into tomorrow.

The swell should persist over the coming days, muscling up a little again into Sunday afternoon and Monday morning thanks to a strengthening of SE trades in the central Indian Ocean over the coming days. This fetch will weaken next week and with it, the SE trade-swell should start to ease.

Also in the mix later tomorrow but more so Saturday should be a new S’ly groundswell, generated by a polar low, west of the Heard Island region earlier this week.

Some new, inconsistent S’ly swell is then due later week (next Thursday/Friday), ahead of some likely stronger S’ly groundswell next weekend owing to a stronger polar low firing up west of the Heard Island region early next week. We’ll have a closer look at this Tuesday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate sized, mid-period S swell building Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-5ft+ across Bali, smaller to the west and more S/SE

Easing swell slowly through the rest of the week.

Inconsistent S/SW groundswell for Monday to 4ft across exposed breaks, with reinforcing mid-period S/SW energy to 3-4ft through next week, fading thereafter.

W/NW-NW morning winds tomorrow, freshening into the afternoon, similar Saturday, weaker W/NW-NW tending SW Sunday and Monday. Weaker W/NW tending W/SW winds Tuesday, variable Wednesday.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Inconsistent S/SW groundswell for later Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-4ft across exposed breaks.

Small, mid-period S/SW swells to follow next week in the 3ft+ range.

Variable winds, tending W'ly through the afternoons.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

SE trade-swell in the 3ft range from today through Monday, easing for the rest of the week.

Small-moderate sized S’ly swell building late tomorrow, peaking Saturday to 3-4ft on the southern atolls.

Small-moderate sized S'ly swell next Thursday afternoon and Friday morning to 3-4ft across the southern atolls

Stronger S'ly swell next weekend

W/NW winds across northern locations and W/SW-SW winds across southern locations tomorrow and on the weekend. Winds tending variable from Tuesday, shifting E/NE from Wednesday