Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 2nd April)

This week through next (Apr 3 - 12)

The large mix of mid-period and groundswell energy due into later Sunday and yesterday came in around forecast with waves ranging between 6-8ft depending on exposure, with the swell now on a slow downwards trend across all locations.

This will continue all week with generally light, variable winds favouring exposed breaks as the size continues to ease.

Unfortunately, as touched on last Thursday, the Indian Ocean is set to go quiet this week and next, with only smallish, background pulses of S/SW swell due early next week.

The next noticeable increase in size is likely Monday, when an inconsistent S/SW groundswell arrives, generated by a slim polar fetch of gale to severe-gale winds, west of the Heard Island region yesterday.

This looks to come in around 4ft on the sets across exposed breaks, with secondary pulses of mid-period S/SW swell likely to come in at 3-4ft for the rest of the week. This will also be with strengthening westerly monsoonal winds as an active phase of the MJO moves through.

Following this it looks smaller.

In the Maldives, we’ve got easing levels of S’ly groundswell across the region, with it due to be slowed by a reinforcing pulse of smaller mid-period energy mid-week.

There should also be building levels of SE trade-swell, though only small in nature, generated by weak SE trades throughout the Indian Ocean. It looks to fill in best later week, holding through the weekend and most of next week.

Otherwise, a small pulse of S’ly swell from the polar low is due later Friday but more so Saturday morning across the southern atolls, slow thereafter.

Eastern Indonesia:

Easing S/SW swell from 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks tomorrow, smaller into the end of the week and weekend.

Inconsistent S/SW groundswell for Monday to 4ft across exposed breaks, with reinforcing mid-period S/SW energy to 3-4ft through next week, fading thereafter.

Variable morning winds, tending S/SE tomorrow and S-S/SW through the end of the week. Weak W/SW winds from Friday, freshening into the weekend and next week (W/NW in the mornings).

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing S/SW swell all week.

Inconsistent S/SW groundswell for later Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-4ft across exposed breaks.

Small, mid-period S/SW swells to follow next week.

SE tending S/SE winds tomorrow across southern locations, variable to the north, variable everywhere from Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S’ly groundswell this week, from 4ft across the southern atolls tomorrow (smaller Male).

Building SE trade-swell, best later week and to 3ft, holding through the weekend and next week.

Small-moderate sized, S’ly swell building late Friday, peaking Saturday to 3-4ft on the southern atolls.

Variable winds, tending light to moderate W/NW through the weekend across northern locations.