Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Feb 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increasing NE swells through Thurs, becoming very sizey through the day under fresh N/NE winds
• Winds shift W/NW-W on Fri with large swell from the NE, easing through the day
• Small E/NE swells fill in next weekend
• S swell  shows Sat PM as a low forms east of Tas
• Stronger S swell Sun, easing Mon and through Tues

Recap

Sizey onshore E swell was in the 5-6ft range yesterday under onshore winds and remains solid 4-5ft today with mod/fresh NE winds.

This week and next week (Feb12 - Feb21)

An active monsoon pattern is seeing a tropical low drifting in the Coral Sea with a supporting high approaching New Zealand and a slow moving trough line just off the NSW Coast, directing strong N’ly winds down into Bass Strait and adjacent to Tasmania. The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters. Tasmania will see small E/NE swells from this source as the system intensifies as it drifts through the South Pacific slot over the weekend. A trough and low forming in the lower Tasman provide plenty of additional S swell on top of the E swell  into next week. 

In the short run expect fresh/strong N’lies tomorrow with sizey NE windswells building from 4-5ft up to 6-8ft during the day.

Source of sizey NE swell Thurs/Fri

We’ll see that peak briefly hold Fri morning before the fetch gets shunted away by an approaching front. We should see wind change from N to W/NW then W thorough the early morning with some potentially very good waves. Expect size to drop away through the day.

Into the weekend and we’ll see small leftovers to 2ft with offshore winds before the front brings fresh and gusty SW-S winds and a spike in new S swell to 3-4ft. We’ll see some better quality but inconsistent E/NE swell to 2-3ft during the day.

S swell ramps up o/night with Sun seeing size to 5-6ft under fresh S/SW winds with some E/NE swell to 2-3ft in the mix.

The low will bring wintry weather and sizey S swells into Mon with fresh SW winds and size to 4ft at S exposed breaks.

We should see a slow easing through Tues with winds tending more W’ly and small E/NE swells in the mix.

Not much after that with easing swells into the end of next week.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.