Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small long range E/NE swell on the radar for Tues/Wed with windows of favourable wind
• Easing E/NE swell Thurs with gusty W’lies
• Small S swell now expected Fri as low forms in Tasman
• Smal S swell leftovers Sat
• Workable NE windswell Sun
• Small S swell to start next week

Recap 

Beautiful clean NE swell leftovers Sat to 3ft with offshore winds and S’lies in the a’noon. We saw a mix of NE and S swells Sun in the 3ft range with easing S’ly winds. Small leftovers to 1-2ft today with light winds providing clean conditions.

This week and next week (Oct 21- Nov1)

Not much change for the short run f/cast this week. The current low located near Lord Howe Island dissipates through today with easing winds along the Eastern Seaboard as a result. We'll see offshore winds develop Wed offering good conditions as a long range E swell makes landfall. We’ll see another trough and more frontal activity through the second half of the week with a complex low pressure trough now looking weaker and more disjointed compared to Fridays model runs. In short, we’ll still see some S swell from this system, but nothing major.

In the short run we’ll see N’ly winds through tomorrow with a late S’ly change as a trough moves up the east of the state. Small NE windswell to 1-2ft with some long range E/NE swell starting to show through the a’noon with sets to 2ft (expect long waits!).

Wed sees a wide range of winds with early S/SE breezes possibly tending variable before a front brings a fresh W-W/NW flow in the a’noon. E/NE swell should peak through the a’noon with inconsistent sets to 3-4ft on offer.

We’ll see that swell persist into Thurs but on a downwards trend through the day with early sets to 2-3ft easing off. Winds look like being fresh and gusty W’lies so expect some tricky surfing conditions. 

By Fri, we’ll see another front push into the Tasman with the creation of another complex trough of low pressure in the Tasman. Although it doesn’t form a huge closed low like Fridays forecast suggested we’ll still see some S swell created by a fetch off the SW flank of the low. Expect SW winds early tending to S’ly breezes at mod strength through the day then light N’lies. We should see minor S swell to 2-3ft during the day at S facing beaches. 

The weekend now looks quite subdued compared to Fridays notes. Small leftovers from the S to 1-2ft Sat morning with a light NW flow tending N’ly through the dat and freshening.

That should produce some small NE windswell either later Sat or into Sun with Sun looking a better bet for NE windswell increasing to 2-3ft under N-NE winds. 

Next week should see a small S swell Mon as a front passes the state then a few small/tiny days after that.

Further ahead and we’ll see some deep frontal activity below the continent with mostly zonal winds and aimed better across the Tasman at New Zealand targets. That should generate some small refracted S swell for later next week.

We’ll see how it looks as we move through the week.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.