Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Quick spike in N’ly windswell Thurs with N’ly winds tending NW-W in the a’noon 
• Another pulse of S swell Sat, with SW winds
• Easing S swell Sun with W/NW-NW winds
• Long period S swell Mon, easing Tues
• Tricky outlook next week, sizey NE windswell possible as low/trough forms off Bass Strait
• Recap
• Swell from the S yesterday was in the 2-3ft range with offshore W/NW winds tending NE in the a’noon. Still long lined sets to 3ft today from the S with light/variable offshore winds now tending mod/fresh NE.

This week and next week (Oct 9 - 18)

High pressure is moving NE of Tasmania into the Tasman Sea, weakening and becoming mobile as it does so. That will see a brief N’ly pattern develop short term. The current S swell will ease through tomorrow with a pair of cold fronts passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri ahead of another trough and high pressure ridge. In short, we’ll see brief pulses of swell from around the compass. Next week looks dynamic with a troughy pattern possibly spawning a surface low off the Central/Southern NSW coast with uncertain surf potential. Let’s dive in.

In the short run the freshening N’ly flow off the coast and extending up off the Gippsland coast brings a quick spike in NE windswell through tomorrow, peaking lunchtime in the 2 occ. 3ft range before W’ly winds kick in and the surf quickly drops.

The second front Fri sees W/NW winds shifting SW in the wake of the front, both at mod/fresh paces. With this type of gusty wind flow surface conditions will be tricky and not much swell is expected. Possibly some minor N’ly windswell wrap from winds out of Bass Strait - more likely tiny/flat.

We will see some S’ly swell Sat from the passage of the front into the Tasman. No great size is expected but we should see 2 occ. 3ft surf at S exposed breaks under light SW winds tending light S’ly in the a’noon.

High pressure moves over the state quickly later Sat into Sun with a N’ly flow developing Sun as it moves NE into the Tasman. We’ll see a small blend of S swell to 2ft Sun with a possible NE windswell in the a’noon to 2ft.

High pressure moves into the Tasman next week- nothing much to see there. From there things get more dynamic. The crux of it is a trough moving NE from Bass Strait which looks to rapidly deepen later Mon, possibly forming a broad surface low in the Tasman NE of Tasmnia. Still lots of model divergence which suggests plenty of revision (possibly major!) ahead as the event gets closer. 

Initially we should see increasing SE-E/SE winds across NETas Mon and possibly into Tues with building swells from the same direction.

It’s possible we may see an increase in E-E/NE swell through the middle/latter part of next week from winds infeeding into the trough/low system. If this scenario plays out, surf could become sizey from this direction.

Equally likely the low generates winds on the southern flank and we see a steep increase in S swells later Mon into Tues from this fetch.

We’ll also see some long period S groundswell to 3ft  in the mix during this time frame (Mon/Tues) with quality depending on how local winds pan out.

Check back in Fri and we’ll have a much clearer idea of how this event will play out as far as surf potential goes. 

Seeya then.