Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized S'ly swell building Tue, holding Wed AM with SW winds Tues, W/NW-NW Wed
• Quick spike in N’ly windswell Thurs with N’ly winds tending NW-W in the a’noon 
• Another pulse of S swell Sat, with SW winds
• Easing S swell Sun with W/NW-NW winds
• Long period S swell Mon, easing Tues
• Tricky outlook next week, sizey NE windswell possible 

Recap

Some good to great surf over the weekend with Sat seeing size in the 3-4ft range with offshore winds for most of the day. Easing into Sun but still offering some fun 2-3ft surf with clean conditions. Size is back to 1-2ft today, just rideable on a big board with NW winds shifting SW as a front pushes through.

This week and next week (Oct 7 - 18)

We’ve currently got a cold front linked to a compact parent low moving across and SE of Tasmania with high pressure tracking through the bight towards Victoria. That will bring a robust S’ly change tomorrow and some workable S swell for temperate NSW, with a trough in the sub-tropics tilting the change more S/SE-SE later tomorrow into Wed. That will be the main swell source this week with another trough, then front of similar strength arriving late this week or Sat and bringing some S’ly windswell Fri before another pulse of S swell over the weekend.

In the short run the front brings fresh SW winds tomorrow, easing in the a’noon. We’ll see some workable S swells from the front in the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks. The a’noon should see better quality surf as wavelength draws out with 3-4ft sets.

Looks like we will see that swell peak overnight and be on the wane Wed, with 3ft sets early slowly easing through the morning and offshore W/NW tending NW-N/NW in the a’noon.

Freshening N’lies off the South Coast and extending down to Bass Strait look to generate a spike in N’ly windswell Thurs with surf building to 3ft during the day. The fetch gets shunted away quickly so surf will likely die off quickly in the a’noon. 

By Fri we’ll have another front with fresh W/NW-W winds shifting W-W/SW in the a’noon. That initial burst of wind will not produce any swell but a deeper fetch should see workable S swells through Sat up into the 4ft range with SW winds possibly trending S’ly and a late seabreeze also possible.

That swell then eases through Sun with some 3ft sets early, easing during the day under offshore W/NW-NW winds.

Into next week and a  polar low passing through the Southern ocean late next weekend (see below) looks to send some long period S swell up the pipe early next week. Models are still divergent over the strength of the low so expect some revisions but for now, we’ll pencil in some 3ft surf from the S arriving Mon and extending into Tues before easing.

Winds look tricky, there is some lingering troughiness to the NE of Tasmania and we may even see some low pressure development in that area next week.

Failing that, it looks like a strengthening N-NE flow and some NE windswell developing next week, possibly sizey.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.