Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another round of NE windswell Thurs with solid NE windswell Fri and offshore winds
• Mod S swell Sat, with a mild increase likely Sun AM with W winds shifting S’ly
• Solid S swells likely through to mid next week with strong pulses Mon PM, Tues, and Wed

Recap

Building NE windswell yesterday to 2ft with a solid increase in size today to 4-5ft under strong N/NW winds as a complex low approaches from Western Bass Strait.

Enough size to make the bommie cap.

This week and next (Sep4 - Sep15)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. The headline act is a complex low system approaching Tasmania with an embedded front and linked to a long inland trough. A NE infeed into this system is producing swell from that quarter today and as the low clears the swell shadow of Tasmania we’ll start to see swells from the S. Following systems next week look to generate stronger, longer period S’ly swells.

Fresh W-W/SW winds tomorrow easing in the a’noon. There’ll be some small NE swell leftovers to 2ft early then building S swell to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks.

Back to W’ly winds Sun, with a morning peak in S swell to 3ft, easing quickly during the a’noon as the proximate fetch to Tasmania quickly gets shunted SE’wards. Get in early before the swell drops. 

Reinforcing S swells are still in the menu for next week, albeit a little downgraded as the follow-up fronts don’t penetrate as far into the Tasman Sea as originally modelled. We’ll still see S swell pulses for most of next week, with Mon seeing size increase to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under light winds.

The trend is then upwards overnight and into Tues as period charts show the next pulse making landfall. Expect solid 4-5ft surf at S facing beaches early, easing during the day with a light offshore synoptic flow.

The next pulse looks to kick Wed and this should be much stronger as severe gales in the fetch really boost swell periods. Expect some 4-5ft sets at least at S facing beaches with light winds.

This pulse should back down late Thurs,  before a last pulse Fri- in the 3ft range.

We’ll see how that looks on Mon but models are in broad agreement so we can pencil in plenty of surfing next week at S exposed breaks.

 Until then, have a great weekend!