Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 8th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Surf easing Mon and then rebuilding Tues from the S with fresh SW-SSW winds
• Plenty of size easing through Wed
• Easing swells later next week and into the weekend
• Tiny surf extends into next week

Recap

Small S swell to 1-2ft Sat with a much stronger 3-4ft pulse Sun as a low pressure system deepened off the Gippsland coast. Today has seen size ease back to 1-2ft with SW winds tending SW/NW through the day. 

This week and next week (May8– May 19)

A 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an L-XL S swell event for NSW, with smaller but still significant  S swell expected for Tasmania.  The primary low moves away to the NE through today with a powerful cold front sweeping into the Tasman Sea operating on an already active sea state to generate a powerful reinforcing swell mid week. 

In the short run and we’ll see fresh SW winds tomorrow with increased S swell from the fetch extending southwards into the Tasman Sea. Size should push up into the 3ft range at S facing beaches, a little wind affected wth the SW winds.

Winds stay fresh from the SW in the wake of a strong front pushing up into the Tasman Tue into Wed (see below) and that will see size elevate into the 4-5ft range through Wed.

Size rapidly rolls off into Thurs as Wednesdays pulses quickly eases, with sets to 2-3ft early, easing back to 2ft or less during the day under light breeze tending N’ly through the day a a high drifts NE of the state. 

Looks like we’ll see a period of tiny surf develop from Fri as high pressure moves NE of the state. Expect size to ease right back to tiny on Fri and stay there over the weekend.

Into next week and there’s not much on the radar for the first half of the week. A high pressure belt straddling Tasmania sees light winds and tiny surf through Mon-Wed.

Later in the week we may start to see some small E/NE swell develop from winds in the Northern Tasman. A potential cold front Wed/Thurs may see some small S swell Thurs but this is too far away to have confidence in .

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.