Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 3rd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller, easing surf Wed ahead of a small E/NE groundswell Thu AM, easing
• Spike in S swell Thurs AM, easing during the day
• Tiny weekend 
• Plenty of sizey S-SE swell next week as low dits in the Tasman, check back Fri for the latest update

Recap

Great quality E/NE swell yesterday with size in the 3ft+range and light winds. Today has seen easing swells with size to 2ft+ and NW winds before a fresh S/SW change as a front passed the state. A late kick in new S swell is expected this a’noon.

This week and next week (May3 – May 12)

We’re in between swells at the moment, with weak front having passed into the Tasman and another front and compact low expected to move into the Tasman Sea later today, generating a moderate S swell event. A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S-SE swell expected. More details below. 

In the short run and we’ll see a morning peak in S swell as the low forms and moves offshore overnight, leaving 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches before easing. SW winds quickly tend variable then NW during the day.

Tiny leftovers are then expected for Fri and extending into Sat as a front pushes NW-W winds across the state and a trough of low pressure forms off the Gippsland coast.

That trough forms a low which deepens rapidly Sun with severe gales extending from the Gippsland region proximate to the East Coast of the Island. That will see rapidly building S swells during Sun, up into the 4-6ft range under fresh/strong SSW-S’ly winds. 

Into next week and the deep Tasman Low will be a major swell producer for the East Coast of the Island as it tracks NE and then hovers and potentially moves back southwards during the week.

Under current modelling we’re looking at gales extending off the southern flank of the low in the East Tas swell window for most of next week. Thats likely see fresh SSE winds and large swells from Mon-Thurs, depending on the movement of the low. Peak size in the 6-8ft range is expected through Wed/Thurs but this is subject to revision as we get closer to the event.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up, as well as take a last look at the weekend.