Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong rebuild in mostly local NE swell Mon, easing Tues with fresh SSE winds developing Tues
• Strong mid period E/NE groundswell showing Wed PM,  building Thurs peaking Fri with SSE winds to work around
• Building S swell Fri, tending to E/SE swell this weekend
• Easing ESE swell early next week with more favourable winds

Recap

Plenty of workable options over the New Years weekend with Sat seeing 2-3ft of E/NE swell and light NE winds. Sunday perked up into the 3ft range with light NE winds and today has jumped considerably with chunky NE windswell in the 3-5ft range and mod NE winds. 

This week and next week (Jan2 - Jan13)

A tropical low which hived off the monsoon trough and which has been providing days of chunky E swell to sub-tropical regions is now, finally, on the move. Compared to model runs the system has been much more slow moving than f/cast- delaying the arrival of E/NE swell to NETas. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a board fetch of strong E’ly winds now tracking SSW-SW back into the Tasman from a position half-way between New Caledonia and the North Island, generating solid ENE’ly swells which will radiate from the sub-tropics down to Eastern Tasmania this week.

In the short run and tomorrow looks like a write-off with rapidly easing NE swell and stiff S-SSE winds as a trough induced change pushes up the East Coast. Fresh SSE winds and easing swells are expected.

A high pressure ridge moving in from the Bight maintains plenty of S-SSE winds through Wed with a mix of short range SSE swell and some E/NE swell of better quality filtering down from the tropical low coming into the Tasman. Expect onshore 2ft surf building to 3ft+ in the a’noon.

SSE winds will be a problem through Thurs and Fri as high pressure moves well SE of Tasmania and maintains a ridge along the coast. If you can work with those winds there’ll be plenty of strong E/NE swell on tap from the tropical low. 

Expect size in the 4ft+ range Thurs, building to 4-5ft on Fri.

Into the weekend and we’re looking at onshore E’ly winds both days at this stage, tending more E/NE on Sun as the high moves further away.

A fetch of SE winds near the South Island will maintain plenty of E/SE swell over the weekend (see below), likely 3-4ft Sat, building to 3-5ft Sun. Onshore winds should ease a notch through Sun as local pressure gradients ease.

Fetch near the South Island supplies plenty of SE-ESE swell this weekend

Surf from this source is the expected to ease into Mon with a light/mod N’ly flow expected to develop as high pressure moves away further. There should be some tasty leftovers in the 3ft range Mon with light N’ly winds.

Into the rest of next week and we’re looking at easing swells with a few small days ahead into the middle and end of next week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how its shaping up.