Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri December 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building E/NE swells Fri
• Mix of local E/NE and stronger E/NE swells this weekend
• Strong rebuild in mostly local NE swell Mon, easing Tues
• Strong mid period E/NE groundswell Wed, easing Thurs/Fri
• Building S swell Fri, tending to SE swell over next weekend, stay tuned for updates.

Recap

Small 1ft surf yesterday has built today as a local E/NE swell builds into the 3ft range with light/mod SE winds, providing plenty of fun surf across NETas.

This weekend and next week (Dec 30 - Jan6)

No change to the weekend f/cast.

With high pressure in the Tasman we’ve got a mix of more local NE windswell and general E/NE swell from the winds in the Tasman.

That will see fun sized 2-3ft surf continue tomorrow with light/mod NE winds.

Size continues into New Years Day before increasing during the a’noon as more local NE windswell builds to 3ft in the a’noon under freshening N’ly winds.

NE windswell builds further overnight as the fetch across Bass Strait intensifies with size to 3-5ft through the day. An approaching trough may see an a’noon NNW to NW tilt after fresh N’lies all day so keep tabs on local winds during the a’noon.

The trough is expected to push through later in the evening Mon with Tues seeing easing NE windswell and messy conditions under mod/fresh SSE winds.

We should finally see some juicier 3-4ft surf build in through the a’noon Wed into the 3-4ft range as the tropical low drifts southwards into Tasman, albeit lacking the high pressure support models initially favoured.  Late W’ly winds should see good surf if models hold.

This strong E swell should peak Thurs in the 3-5ft range, slowly easing through Thurs. We’ll see a S’ly change at some point later  Wed, likely in the evening as a front pushes through, with SSE winds expected Thurs as the front eases and a trough deepens in the lower Tasman. Expect these winds to increase through the day along with short range S swell.

Later next week we’ll see plenty of sizey SE swell develop as a new low forms near the South Island from the remnants of the tropical low (see below) Friday sees increasing S swell with stronger SE swell building in Sat and holding Sun.

Thats still a long way off so lets see how it’s shaping up when we come back in 2023. Have a great New Years and we’ll see you next year!