Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed December 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Surf easing rapidly Thurs with S/SE winds
• Building E/NE swells Fri
• Mix of local E/NE and stronger E/NE swells this weekend
• Strong rebuild in mostly local NE swell Mon, easing Tues
• Strong mid period E/NE groundswell Wed, easing Thurs/Fri

Recap

Not much surf to speak of yesterday with just a tiny signal of NE swell and some stray S swell at S facing beaches. Today is seeing strong NE windswell push wave heights up into the 4-6ft range with early N winds now tending W’ly as a trough approaches, providing good/great surf. 

This week and next week (Dec 28 - Jan6)

The building blocks for a classic Summer monsoonal pattern are now firmly in place and almost the entire Eastern Seaboard from the Tropic of Capricorn to Tasmania is going receive swell as a result of it.  A dual-centred high straddles New Zealand with an elongated monsoonal low pressure trough located in the Coral Sea and extending into the near South Pacific. This is creating a long and broad E’ly fetch which is slowly extending southwards. As we near the end of the week, a more discrete surface low hives off the end of the monsoonal low pressure trough and retrogrades back into the Tasman Sea as it intensifies, generating  ENE’ly swells over the last days of 2022 and first days of 2023.

Not much in the short run with onshore winds and declining swells tomorrow as a trough pushes through. Expect a mix of short range S swell and NE leftovers to 2ft, blown out by SSE-SE winds which tend E in the a’noon.

Friday sees a rebuild in E/NE swell as a new high pressure cell moves into the Tasman and quickly develops a proximate fetch of E’ly winds to the NE of Tas. Expect onshore E’ly to ENE’ly winds with short period windswell in the 3ft range. Scrappy, but surfable.

Into the New Years Weekend and we’ll see a mix of local E/NE-NE swell from the high pressure cell in the Tasman and mid period E/NE swell from the low pressure cell as it drifts in from the Coral Sea. Local E/NE swell is expected to dominate with size in the 3ft range both days and NE winds. Better quality E/NE swell will be in the mix so a surf should be worthwhile. 

Local NE swell builds further into Mon as a fetch intensifies off the Gippsland coast into Bass Strait, with size to 3-4ft expected. Early N winds should tend NW then W as a front pushes through, tending S’ly late in the day.

Surf then eases from this source during Tues with light onshore winds expected. 

If models hold true we’ll be looking at the main course of this swell event to kick off the first week of 2023 (see below). Over the weekend a low hives off from the end of the large area of monsoonal low pressure and begins to drift SW back into the Northern Tasman (see below), intensifying with E’ly gales aimed back at the Eastern Seaboard. With the fetch travelling in the same direction as the propagated swell trains, we’ll see enhanced potential for swell production.

The bulk of this swell is expected to fill in across NETas during Wed with size building to 3-5ft during the day and slowly winding back through Thurs/Fri as the low remains slow moving.

It’s too far out to have confidence in winds but a S-SE flow does look likely as another strong high moves into the Bight.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.