Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon December 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Juicy NE windswell peaking Wed with a window of favourable winds expected
• Surf easing rapidly Thurs with S/SE winds
• Building E/NE swells Fri
• Mix of local E/NE and stronger E/NE swells this weekend
• Pumping E/NE swell expected Mon, slowly easing Tues/Wed

Recap

Not much surf to speak of over the Xmas weekend. Both days saw tiny surf in the 1ft range with NW winds Sat, tending more W’ly on Xmas day. Today has seen continuing tiny surf in the 1ft range with light/variable winds.

This week and next week (Dec 26 - Jan6)

We’re now on the cusp of a dynamic, tropical induced blocking pattern with low pressure hiving off an active monsoon trough in the Coral Sea and meandering in Coral Sea before drifting down into the Northern Tasman. The high pressure belt holds good support for this low pressure area with reinforcing cells stacking onto a slow moving system located at South Island latitudes. Eventually this large low pressure system drags a board fetch south enough to send useful E/NE swell to NE Tas.

In the short run and N’ly winds kick up tomorrow as high pressure drifts into the Tasman Sea. Expect freshening N’lies and a small bump in NE windswell in the a’noon into the 1-2ft range.

Much stronger NE windswell is then expected to build overnight Tues into Wed with solid 4-5ft surf Wed morning, peaking through the middle of the day in the 6ft range before easing during the a’noon. Great conditions are expected through the a’noon as winds tend NW then W/NW as a front pushes across the state.

S’ly winds make a mess of small leftovers Thurs with some minor short range S swell to 2ft in the mix.

By Fri we’ll see some short range E/NE swell fill in to 2-3ft as high pressure quickly moves SE of Tasmania and a weak fetch extends through the lower Tasman.

 A mix of short range NE windswell and mid period E/NE swell then fills in over the NYE weekend under a freshening NE flow. Expect size in the 3ft range Sat, building a notch into the 3-4ft range Sun.

Stronger E/NE groundswell then fills in Mon as the tropical low pushes well south into the Tasman. Expect plenty of chunky mid-period E/NE swell in the 4-6ft range Mon with flukey winds as a trough line approaches Tas. An offshore flow is possible so pencil in Mon for a surf.

Swell then eases into Tues though with plenty of size still holding surf in the 3-5ft range expected to slowly ease through Wed. S/SE winds are expected as an angled trough line forms in the Tasman and a strong new high pressure cell moves in from the Bight.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.