Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri December 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny waves for Xmas weekend with mostly morning offshore winds 
• Good prospects for juicy NE windswell from Tues next week, peaking Wed, easing Thurs
• Building E/NE swells Fri
• Quality E/NE swell expected for NYE weekend

Recap

Not much own offer yesterday with weak 1ft surf and light winds. Todays NE windswell has come in over expectations with some fun sized 2-3ft surf on offer across the region with a light/variable flow now tending to light N’ly winds.

This weekend and next week (Dec 23 - 30)

No great change to the Xmas weekend f/cast. Fronts passing to the S bring a mostly offshore flow both days with E’ly breezes likely in the a’noon. 

Small leftovers from the NE see some 1ft surf through Sat and a similar size is expected Sun. With clean conditions both mornings it’ll be worth looking for a small, rideable wave.

A broad summer blocking pattern will be setting up by Boxing Day with a dominant, slow moving high in the Tasman and low pressure expected to form along the monsoon trough line in the Coral Sea and in the South Pacific near the North Island. That will see at least dual swell producing fetches aimed at the Eastern Seaboard, favouring our subtropical region for most size, with some small E/NE swell filtering down to Tasmania later next week. 

The high in the Tasman does set up a more local NE fetch though, with some chunky NE swell expected to develop Mid week.

Tiny surf extends into Boxing Day with a chance of a small, refracted S swell wrapping in from the passage of the front. Keep expectations low but there may be some 1-2ft S swell at S facing beaches.

By Tues a’noon we should see N’ly winds start to freshen with small amounts of NE windswell developing to 2ft through the a’noon.

The fetch rapidly intensifies overnight into Wed with strong winds extending from the Gippsland Coast down to Bass Strait (see below) and generating plenty of sizey NE swell through Wed. We’ll peg size in the 4-5ft range at least with some 6ft sets likely. Winds from the N should tend more NW through the day as a front and trough approach from the W.

Easing swells from the NE Thurs will ironed out by early offshore winds before being  hammered by S-SSE winds as a front pushes through with a strong high pressure ridge building in behind it. Expect clean 4ft surf early with short range S swell building in through the day as conditions deteriorate.

Through the end of next week we should see fun levels of E/NE swell start to make landfall from E’ly fetches drifting south from the Coral Sea. We’ll need further model guidance to make a call on size but lets peg it at 3-4ft going into the NY weekend, augmented by a more close range fetch of E’ly winds coming from a reinforcing high moving into the Tasman south of Tasmania .

Get ready for an extended surf pattern and expect daily revisions as we dial in the movement and strength of the E’ly fetches developing next week and into the New Year. 

Happy Xmas everyone and have a great weekend!