Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed December 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf from Tues with tiny waves for Xmas weekend
• Good prospects for juicy NE windswell from Tues next week, peaking Wed, easing Thurs
• Quality E/NE swell expected for NYE weekend

Recap

Easing swells since the last forecast notes with yesterday seeing size in the 2ft range with SE winds and today easing right back to tiny (1ft) with light winds tending N’ly through the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Dec 21 - 30)

With the remnants of the Tasman low lingering up near the North Island we’re looking at easing swells into the Xmas weekend. 

A brief fetch of N-NE winds near the South Coast tomorrow will see a small signal of NE windswell but we’re not looking at much more than a foot or so through Thurs, peaking into Fri AM in the 1-2ft range with winds tending variable on Fri as a trough moves through. There should be just enough swell energy to be surfable.

Not much on offer over the Xmas weekend. Approaching fronts drive NW winds through Sat, tending more W’ly on Xmas day but no major swell sources are on offer so we’ll be looking at just tiny back ground swell from the E in the 1ft range. 

Next week looks more exciting. The passage of the front Sun/Mon may see a small S swell later Boxing Day but keep expectations low- major weather models are divergent over the fetch and it’s unlikely to produce more than a 1-2ft S swell at S facing beaches.

More reliable is a developing NE fetch as high pressure moves into the Tasman early next week. His should see NE windswell start to build later Tues into the 2ft+ range.

Stronger NE windswell is then on the menu for Wed as NE winds freshen through Bass Strait during the day, whipping up size into the 4-5ft range during the day under fresh N’lies.

This swell then hangs in Thurs AM before easing during the day as a cold front pushes through, bringing S’ly winds and a likely spike in S’ly windswell to 2-3ft.

Longer term and a trough of low pressure retrogrades back into the Tasman mid next week aiming E’ly winds back to the Eastern seaboard. While the fetch is better aimed at NSW targets, Eastern Tas should see some quality mid period E/NE swell for next Sat and into Sun. A nice way to end the year.

Check back Fri for the latest update.