Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon December 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized SE swell Sat, with a better pulse Sun, then E/SE pulse Mon AM
• Light-mod SW tending SE winds Mon, light-mod S/SW-SW tending SE winds Tue
• Easing surf from Tues with tiny waves for Xmas weekend
• Good prospects for juicy NE windswell from Tues next week, peaking Thurs/Fri

Recap

Plenty of windy S swell to 3-4ft Sat with S’ly winds, holding in the 3-4ft range Sun with continuing S’lies. Today has seen lighter winds early, now tending S-SE with a last pulse of E/SE swell coming in the 4ft range. 

This week and next week (Dec 19 - 30)

 The combination of a Tasman low and strong high moving through the Bight has supplied a stack of S swell to the f/cast region since late last week, with an intensification and NE’ward movement of the low upping the size through today. Pressure gradients will now slowly ease as the low starts to dissipate and the strong high weakens as it moves South of Tasmania through tomorrow. As this swell generating pattern breaks down we’ll be left with a weak, troughy pattern coming into the Xmas weekend with no major swell sources on hand, so you’ll need to get your grovel boards ready for Santa.

In the short run, get in tomorrow for a mop of the last of the SE swell with some 2ft sets early, easing through the day. Conditions should be OK for the early with lighter SW-S winds, tending SSE through the day.

By Wed there won’t be much swell energy left at all, just a foot or so with light winds as high pressure moves NE to be off the NSW coast. 

This high develops a N to NE flow through Thurs, although windspeeds remain low, it should be enough to develop a workable NE windswell through the a’noon- good enough for a grovel with size to 2ft and mod NE winds.

A weak trough brings a S’ly change Fri with some leftover NE windswell to 2ft quickly fading through the day. 

Not much surf to look forwards too over the Xmas weekend, unfortunately. An approaching cold front sees winds swing NW to W/NW Sat and surf go close to flat. Possibly rideable on big boards.

Xmas day doesn’t look much better with continuing offshore winds and more surf in the tiny range- just a foot or so from the E- possibly surfable on big boards. 

Tiny surf continues into Boxing Day but by Tues we should see a N’ly fetch develop in the NETas swell window as a high moves towards the South Island and a trough approaches from the W. That should tighten pressure gradients through Tues with surf building into the 2-3ft range.

Wednesday and Thursday look juicier as windspeeds increase in the fetch off the South Coast and surf builds into the 4-5ft range through Wed (see below), holding into Thurs. Pencil those days in for nice swell to end 2022.

Nice fetch in the swell window mid next week

A S’ly change is likely later Thurs or into Fri. Check back Wed for details there.

Longer term and the tropics are firing up so we’ll see if anything develops and moves into the Tasmanian swell window.

Seeya Wed.