Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Wed , with another one Thurs- mostly under offshore winds as fronts pass over the state
• Another small mixed bag over the weekend, small NE swell Sat PM into Sun
• Small S swells persist into Mon next week
• NE windswell swell likely building Tues/peaking Wed with winds tending offshore  
• Possible sizey S swell Fri next week as low forms in Tasman Sea SE of Tasmania

Recap

Small S swells continue to make landfall with yesterday seeing surf in the 1ft range and light winds with today seeing more size, in the 2ft range at S facing beaches.

This week and next week (Nov30-Dec9)

We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard. S’ly swells are dominating the Southern Tasmanian coast, with a small wrap around into the North-East coast.

In the short run and see continuing levels of small S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches through tomorrow as a front passes to the south with SSE winds on offer as a trough lingers offshore. A high pressure ridge quickly builds in behind the trough.

That will see winds shift NE-N on Fri after a period of variable/offshore winds in the morning. We’ll see a bigger pulse Fri as the last of the S;kly swell pulses makes landfall with size to 2-3ft at S facing beaches. Tiny elsewhere.

Into the weekend and not much change expected for what is a very quiet outlook. Tiny surf both days with N to NW winds Sat, tending SE on Sun as a high slips SE of the state.

Next week will be quiet to start off with tiny surf expected Mon.

We should see a building NE windswell Tues as a trough/low approaches from the W and a N’ly fetch builds down the South Coast of NSW into Bass Strait. Expect surf to build from 1-2ft to 3ft on Tues.

Size then should peak in the 3-4ft range as W’ly winds push in with the trough/low, easing during the day.

By mid next week there’s broad model consensus the trough near Tasmania and washed out low will form a large, cut-off low in the lower Tasman later next week (see below), with GFS suggesting a much more bullish outlook which would see strong S swell developing during Fri into the 6ft range.

EC has a more modest system but would still see some significant S swell develop during the same time frame.

We also may see remnants of a low pressure system reform near the North Island later next week with potential for some longer range small E/NE swell so we’ll keep tabs on that and report back on Fri.

There’s a lot to keep an eye on, so check back in then.