Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Winds tending offshore Thurs next week with strong surf in the AM, easing during the day
• Small bump in NE swell Fri with offshore winds
• Small surf Fri into the weekend
• Quick spike in NE windmill expected Mon AM, with offshore winds, easing quickly during the day
• Small S swell pulse Wed with offshore winds

Recap

Plenty of swell energy and onshore winds to go with it remains the continuing theme as a low pressure complex remains slow moving near Tasmania. Yesterday saw size in the 4-6ft range with onshore S to SE winds and today has seen bigger 6-8ft surf with onshore E’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Oct26-Nov4)

Our Coral Sea low is now sitting just NE of Tasmania where it has merged with an exiting interior low to form a large, slow moving low-pressure gyre. Troughs are still snaking across Australia with a long trough line extending from the low pressure gyre through inland NSW up towards QLD and then into the Northern Territory, expected to move offshore through today. More embedded troughs and fronts approach the Island during the rest of this week, driving an unstable but basically NW’ly to W’ly biased wind flow across the f/cast region through the end of the week with easing swells.

In the short run tomorrow looks like the best day of the f/cast period. Expect solid surf to 4-6ft from the E/NE and E/SE, easing during the day and clean under all day NW to W/NW winds. Definitely get on it tomorrow if you can.

By Fri surf will be easing right back into the 2ft range, although we are expecting one more small bump in NE swell to 2-3ft from a fetch in the Tasman Sea. Conditions should be groomed by fresh offshore NW to W winds as a front sweeps across he state. 

Into the weekend thew front drives gales out of Bass Strait and a smaller, weaker fetch coming around the bottom of Tas, which generates small S swell for the NE Tas coast. Not much size is expected, only around 2ft Sat, smaller 1-2ft Sun but conditions should be clean under an all-day W’ly flow Sat , extending into Sun with a NE seabreeze establishing after lunch Sun.

Next week should see a quick up and down in NE windswell as a high moves into the Tasman and as the next mid-latitude low complex approaches and squeezes the pressure gradient. This fetch is expected to be very transitory compared to recent ones so it’s swell generating potential is more limited. The fetch fires up quickly overnight Sun into Mon generating a quick spike in NE windswell to 3-5ft, before being shunted away by NW to W winds as a southern cell of the complex low pressure system passes to the south of the Island. Get in early as winds shift to the NW-W and expect a rapidly dropping swell.

By Tues we are looking at freshening offshore winds as winter style fronts and lows pass under the state. A small S swell pulse is possible Wed as a deep fetch rapidly transits the Lower Tasman. Wave models are suggesting 2ft surf but EC has a stronger more S’ly oriented fetch that would yield bigger surf. Lets see how it shapes up.

Otherwise we are looking at small, groomed conditions as we head into the end of next week.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.