Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Developing NE windswell Fri, with sizey surf all weekend and a late SW’ly change Sat
• Strong SE winds Sun with spike in short range S-SE swell 
• Plenty of E swell building Mon, tending NE through Tues/Wed as tropical low drifts towards Tasmania
• Winds tending offshore Wed next week
• Small surf from Thurs next week into the weekend

Recap

Small S swell yesterday supplied a few 2 footers at S facing beaches. Today is seeing a freshening NE flow with NE windswell building to 2-3ft through the a’noon. 

This weekend and next week (Oct21-Oct 28)

Dynamic weekend f/cast ahead as a strong NE fetch builds a chunky windswell and a trough then brings an extended period of elevated wave heights from the SE to E.

Sat will see chunky NE windswell build into the 4-5ft range under mod/fresh N’ly winds initially. The trough brings a SW’ly change through the a’noon, possibly stalling out near St Helens. 

The trough elongates through Sun with a strong high moving south of the state. That will direct fresh SSE winds onto the East Coast, with a rapid rise in short range SSE-SE swell expected through the day. Expect a blend of NE swell to 4ft , easing through the day and building levels of SSE swell to 3-5ft through Sun a’noon.

Into the new week and the trough line and high remain slow moving, continuing to direct a proximate fetch of SE-ESE winds at Tasmania ’s East Coast. That will see plenty of size in the in the 5-6ft range, building further into the 6-8ft range during the day but surface conditions will be ugly under straight onshore winds.

Plenty of size continues through Tues with a tropical low drifting down from the Coral Sea dragging a fresh NE fetch down into the East Tas swell window (see below). Expect E swell in the 6ft range tending to NE swell to 5-6ft during the day with winds tending E and SE as the low approaches.

Strong NE swell is then likely to extend into Wed, with winds finally tending offshore as the Coral Sea low hovers off the East Coast. 

From Thurs next week we’ll see surf easing off as a low stalls out south of Tas and an offshore flow is established across the Island. We may see some small E swell off the bottom of that low, but size is expected to remain smaller than 2ft. 

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!