Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulses Tues-Thurs
• Developing NE windswell Fri, with sizey surf all weekend and offshore winds Sat
• NE swell extends into early next week
• Possible SSE-SE swell Tues-Thurs next week as low forms just E of Tasmania, check back Wed for details

Recap

Small, fun waves on Sat with clean leftovers in the 3ft range, easing back further on Sun with a few 2footers leftover. Today is seeing a small blend with mostly S swell and a bit of stray E/NE swell to 2ft with light winds. 

This week and next week (Oct17-Oct 28)

As mentioned last week we have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman with a broad area of high pressure now moving over the area and yet another complex low pressure system moving East across inland Australia. A series of fronts are rapidly transiting across the Lower Tasman with some small S swell pulses en route.  The end of the week will see another round of  NE windswell develop, likely persisting over the weekend and into next week and blending with a developing Tradewind swell which is likely to send some small surf as far south as Tasmania. A low may form SE of the Island early next week with plenty of surf potential.

In the short run and we are looking at a few small days of surf ahead. Small S swell in the 1-2ft range through tomorrow with light winds, tending NW in the a’noon should offer some surfable options at S facing beaches. 

Fronts passing to the south bring offshore NW/SW winds on Wed, with a slight kick in S swell to 2ft expected, again offering some surfable options at S facing beaches.

In the wake of a front we’ll see a quick blast of S’ly winds on Thurs with small S swell continuing to 2ft.

Those winds tend NE on Fri, with stronger S swell expected to be overlapped by a developing NE windswell. We’ll start to see a stronger NE pattern develop as the inland low approaches and a stronger high moves into the Tasman. That will see fresh N to NE winds develop across the region and a building trend in NE windswell as a proximate fetch to the NSW Coast extends and strengthens. Expect size to push up into the 4-5ft range during the day.

Winds tend offshore Sat as a front attached to the inland low passes through. Expect excellent conditions as offshore winds and strong NE windswell to 4-5ft combine. Expect an easing trend through the day as the fetch gets shunted away from the swell window. 

Sunday sees a trough form E of Tasmania containing remnants of the interior low, with a new high pushing through the Bight. That will see S winds develop, with leftover NE  swell in the 3ft range expected. 

Into next week and we’re looking at a mix of NE swell to 3-4ft and developing SE swell as the trough elongates, possibly forming a new low south-east of the Island (see below) and aiming a fetch of SE winds at the East Coast. Expect size to push up into the 4ft range from this source.

Strong SSE-SE swell then looks likely to persist into Tues and Wed next week as the trough/low hovers in the swell window. We’ll need some more model guidance before we dial winds in but depending on the position of the low they may tend more SW on Wed.

Small amounts of E/NE tradewind swell are also likely to impact Tas by Mon/Tues next week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.