Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf through Wed-Thurs
• Small S swell pulse Fri
• Mod S swell Sat with fresh SW winds
• Increase in S swell persists Sun with over-riding long period energy bringing a boost to size and juice
• Strong long period S swell persists into Mon, slowly eases Tues/Wed

Recap

No great surf to speak of with only tiny waves yesterday, extending into today under a W’ly flow, tending more W/SW through today. 

This week and next week (Aug 31 – Sep 9)

No significant changes to the outlook. The current pattern- with weak high pressure drifting across Central NSW and a soft ridge along the coast- will be replaced in emphatic fashion by a much stronger front and trough on Friday, forming a surface low off the Mid North Coast, anchored by a monster high moving into the Bight at the same time. Well to the south of that set-up will be a deep polar low and associated fronts with severe gales to storm force winds generating long period S’ly swells to make landfall over the weekend and into early next week.

In the short run and not much excitement for the rest of the working week. Tiny surf continues tomorrow with just a small increase in S swell on the cards for Fri as a front pushes through. Expect winds to tend SW to WSW through the day with surf building to 2-3ft as long period S swells wrap around the Island into S facing beaches.

These long period swells continue into the weekend with a SW flow Sat tending variable in the a’noon as a trough lingers about the NE coast. Expect swell from the S in the 3-4ft range to build in around lunch-time.

This pulse eases back Sun morning before another S’ly pulse produces some 4ft sets at S facing beaches on Sun, biggest around midday. 

Much stronger long period S’ly groundswell makes landfall Mon, generated by the vast polar storm passing between Australia and New Zealand Fri-Sun (see below). Expect sets in the 6ft range with some real grunt at S facing beaches. A light S to SE flow is expected as high pressure approaches Tasmania, but conditions should be workable, if not ideal.

Easing but still strong S swell sees 4-5ft sets Tues morning, dropping back during the day under a light and variable flow, tending to weak E’ly breezes.

There should be enough leftover S swell for some 2-3ft surf Wed as NE winds freshen.

N’lies increase to end next week, with good odds for some workable NE windswell Thurs next week. With another strong frontal progression looking likely to generate another round of S swell next weekend. Confidence is low this far out so lets see how it’s shaping up Fri.

More on that in Fridays f/cast. See you then.