Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Lingering SE swell Thurs with mostly offshore winds
• Minor S swell Fri with fresh SW winds
• Small surf over the weekend 
• NE windswell on the cards for Mon, easing Tues with offshore winds
• Another round of NE windswell possible Wed’
• Small S swell likely Fri next week

Recap

Great surf yesterday with size in the 3-5ft range and light winds. Today has seen more great surf from the ESE with size in the 4-6ft range and a light NW flow tending E’ly before a late W/NW pre-frontal wind kicked in.

This week and next week (Jul 27 - Aug 5)

One of the features of this current La Niña phase has been long-lived swell events as low pressure lingers in the Tasman Sea. This current event is typical of that pattern. We are now close to the end game as the low which started off the CQ Coast in the Coral Sea expends it’s last energy off the bottom of the South Island New Zealand, with a fetch still well aimed for East Coast Tasmania.

In the short run and as a cold front passes the state winds will swing SW and freshen, with swell from the E/SE finally easing through the day. Expect a few 3ft sets early, easing back to 2ft by the end of the day.

The frontal passage whips up SW winds and a fetch that isn’t well located for Tasmania but will still produce a minor S swell for Fri, with sets to 2-3ft at S facing beaches and fresh SW to SSW winds requiring some wind protection.

Not much action expected for the weekend with only small S swell in the 2ft range Sat, easing through the day and tiny surf on Sunday. Fronts crossing the state bring a W/NW to W flow so what surf there is will be brushed clean.

Next week has some potential for NE windswell as high pressure moves into the Tasman at a more northerly latitude, allowing a fetch of N’ly winds to develop off the South Coast down to Bass Strait (see below). Expect freshening N’ly winds Mon and a fast rising windswell up into the 3-4ft range during the a’noon.

Tuesday looks good with NE windswell to 3-4ft, easing during the day under W’ly winds as another front crosses the state.

We’re looking at the possibility of another round of small NE windswell Thurs as the N’ly flow regroups in response to another approaching front. We’ll pencil in 2-3ft for now and see how it shapes up.

The front forms a small low in the Tasman later next week, likely to supply another small/moderate S swell in the 3ft range to close off next week.

Check back Fri for a fresh update.