Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller Thu with W tending NW winds
• Small NE windswell Sat with N'ly winds
• E/NE groundswell fills in Sun with light winds
• Better quality E/NE groundswell on the radar for next week, Mon, peaking Tues/Wed as low drifts down from Coral Sea

Recap

Plenty of strong S to SE swell in the last two days with yesterday seeing strong 5-6ft sets at S facing beaches and SW winds, easing back today into the 4ft range with winds tending lighter SW before swinging variable then NE in the a’noon as high pressure moved over the Island state.

This week and next week (Jul 20 - 29)

The basic building blocks as we described them in Mondays notes are now in place for (another!) dynamic La Niña mediated surf/weather event. A dominant high pressure system (1034hPa) is strengthening as it slowly crosses Tasmania, a typical Summer latitude for high pressure. The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells towards Tasmania  and, most notably, a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow. This low will provide large E’ly quadrant swells for a huge swathe of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Central QLD Coast to Tasmania over the coming week.

In the short run and the high pressure moving over the Island and into the Tasman Sea will see small amounts of NE windswell develop as the SE swell fades through tomorrow a’noon after one last pulse through the morning. Expect light and variable winds to tend N’ly in the a’noon with surf in the 3ft range from the SE, easing in the a’noon with some small NE windswell developing.

Friday sees NE windswell build into the 2ft range with freshening N’ly winds and this swell builds further into Sat with size in the 3-4ft range, all short/mid period windswell with mod/fresh NNE winds accompanying the swell.

Into Sunday and the NE windswell fades, only to be replaced at larger levels by stronger E/NE groundswell generated by the Coral Sea low which will have tracked S then SE into the Tasman Sea, spraying the entire East Coast with swell as it does so. 

Expect size in the 3ft range to build through the a’noon into the 3-4ft range with much better quality sets and winds to tend lighter NE.

Strong E/NE groundswell is expected Mon-Wed, in the 4-6ft range, so make sure you pencil in some surf-time.

Winds Mon should be light as high pressure lingers near the Island.

Light winds should tend W’ly Tues and then SW-S Wed as a front approaches then passes over the State.

Past mid next week and we’ll see swell ease from the E/NE, with a possible pulse from the SE from under neath the South Island later next week.

Check back Fri and we’ll have a fresh update.