Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swell persists Thurs, pulsing again Fri with SW to S’ly winds
• Chunky S swell Sat with fresh S to SSE winds
• Solid E/SE groundswell Sun, holding with plenty of size Mon and improving winds
• Another pulse of E/SE swell expected Wed next week with offshore winds
• More S swell likely towards the end of next week

Recap

Fun levels of E/NE swell in the 2ft range since the last f/cast notes with light winds yesterday, extending into today and now tending N’ly.

This week and next week (July6 – Jul 15)

You couldn’t get a more “perfect” La Niña winter synoptic set-up if you tried. A massive cloud-band enveloping most of the Eastern Seaboard, tied to a complex low pressure system in the Tasman, and strong high pressure system with both systems slow moving. Multiple trough lines also complicate the situation, leading to uncertain movements of the main low, and development of secondary low pressure centres, of which one is forming off the Mid North Coast today (between Coffs and Port Macquarie). As noted on Mon, this is playing havoc with weather models. 

There is a clear trend now in sight though, with the main low centre expected to move away from the Coast through tomorrow, as another trough pushes through the region. By Friday the low will have moved towards the West Coast of the South Island, where it intensifies again, generating strong surf for East Coast Tasmania.

In the short run a weak front brings a SW change tomorrow with small levels of E/NE swell expected in the 2ft range.

The southwards tracking low generates another pulse of E/NE swell for Fri, up into the 2-3ft range with SW winds, tending S’ly through the day as a high pressure ridge builds in behind the front.

Looking to the weekend and there’s plenty of action expected. 

Sat sees a northwards moving trough combine with the low near NZ and a strong high pressure system to bring a fresh S to SSE flow and plenty of size from the S. Expect surf in the 5-6ft range to build through Sat but quality will be hampered by the wind.

Much stronger E/SE groundswell is expected Sun, with size in the 6ft range. This swell will be generated by the low intensifying to severe gale status through Fri/Sat off the West coast of the South Island, with the fetch well aimed at East Coast targets (see below).

The ridge will weaken on Sun, with a light onshore flow expected, tending NE in the a’noon. 

Into next week and plenty of size holds over from Sundays pulse with size in the 5-6ft range Mon, easing a notch during the day. Winds look better too, being light/mod NW to N as an elongated high drifts across the Tasman.

Size eases back into the 2-3ft range Tues before another pulse of swell from the E/SE generated from a persisting fetch below the South Island brings surf back to the 3-5ft range on Wed, with light offshore winds expected.

A cold front Wed, should see a small spike in S swell Thurs, possibly Fri, but models are showing too much divergence to have confidence in this outcome.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.