Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued MonJuly 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E/NE swell for later Mon, peaking Tue
• Small mixed bag of S swell and easing E/NE swell Wed
• Solid spike in S swell Fri, peaking Sat with fresh S’lies
• Better quality E/SE groundswell Sun, easing Mon with light winds

Recap

Small, clean surf from the S this weekend, with size topping out at 2ft Sat, and a few sets to 2ft on Sunday. Today has seen similar size surf with W’ly biased winds and a small amount of energy from the E/NE from an ECL off the Central NSW Coast- just that little bit too far north to really pump for East Coast Tasmania. 

This week and next week (July4 – Jul 15)

Tasman Sea is looking very, very spicy this week with our current low looking to meander N and E, then S and reintensify later in the week, sending  swell to NETas as it approaches the West Coast of the South Island. We’ve currently got a strong pressure squeeze between a dominant high in the Bight (1033 hPa) and the complex low system off the Central NSW Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows strong winds to low end gales extending due E of the Central down to South Coasts which will send E/NE swells towards NETas. A long trough-line extends down from the Northern Coral Sea into the Tasman- a continuing  source of instability.

In the short run and E/NE swell peaks in the 3ft range through tomorrow, with a small amount of refracted S’ly groundswell in the mix. Light/mod SW winds should ease through the day as high pressure moves over the state.

Into Wed and small leftovers from the E/NE should hold sets to 2ft, extending into Thurs. Light winds are expected under the influence of high pressure. 

A strong cold front riding up the leading edge of a high pressure system brings a strong SW to S flow Fri and a steep increase in S swell, building in from mid-morning to be 5-6ft by the late a’noon.

Size builds further into the 6-8ft range at S exposed beaches Sat, easing through the day. Winds will be a problem with fresh S’lies trending SSE during the day at similar speeds.

Much better quality swell arrives Sun, generated by gales near the South Island aimed back towards East Coast targets (see below). This will be a longer period E/SE swell and with light winds expected there should be some great surf in the 4-5ft range Sun.

This pulse then eases back through Mon, with early 4ft sets, easing through the day and light winds tending N’ly.

Into next week and a dynamic, troughy outlook is playing havoc with weather models, so we look into next week with extremely low confidence.

Some sort of low pressure development in the Tasman looks almost certain next week. 

EC suggests then another complex low in the Northern Tasman, rapidly developing E’ly gales aimed at a wide swathe of the East Coast and solid E/NE’ly swell incoming later Tues into Wed/Thurs.

GFS has a much more modest SE flow adjacent to the sub-tropics with a troughy pattern developing over Central NSW. That will see surf diminishing from Tues into next week.

To be honest, I think the models are struggling to resolve the pattern and a “watch and wait” attitude is the most appropriate one. 

EC sure looks juicy though!

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.