Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri March 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Leftover SE swell Sat holds at small levels with light NW winds
• Building NE windswell Sun PM, with NE winds
• Rapid build in short range S swell Mon
• Building levels of E swell Tues, tending to strong E/NE swell Wed, peaking Thurs, winds a problem

Recap

Solid S swell maintained surf in the 3-4ft range yesterday with mod/fresh Sly winds. Size is now easing with 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches,  smaller elsewhere and winds that tended SW this morning now becoming light and variable as a high approaches the state, expected to pass over the Island overnight.

This week and next week (Mar 11 - 19)

The Tasman low is now transiting under the South Island, with a long band of high pressure tracking through the Bight and expected to seed a large high pressure cell into the Tasman over-night and into tomorrow. That will set up a weak ridge of high pressure along the Central NSW coast over the weekend. 

No change to the weekend f/cast. Small amounts of SE swell in the 2ft range should offer just rideable surf as the high pressure moves across the state , bringing light NW winds tending light NE in the a’noon.

A developing NE flow as the high transits across the Tasman on Sun should see NE windswell perk up through the a’noon, into the 2-3ft range.

A trough in advance of a strong new high brings a S’ly change Mon. There won’t be much left of the NE windswell, just a few 1-1.5ft leftovers but S swell should build rapidly through the day, getting up into the 3-4ft range, although it’s short period windswell so don’t expect much in the way of quality.

This swell holds into Tues with winds swinging E to NE as the high tracks well to the south of Tasmania. This is a large high moving at a very southerly latitude even for a La Niña year (see below)

Into the middle of next week and a robust fetch of E’ly winds extending out from Tasmania into the Tasman Sea, generated by the large high will maintain a solid level of E’ly swell. This swell will trend E/SE on Tues, then E/NE to NE on Wed and Thursday as the fetch transitions to a higher latitude. Onshore winds from the E/NE on Wed, should tend more NE on Thurs. Expect surf to build into the 4ft range on Wed and hold in at that size Thurs.

By Fri there’ll be model divergence about how this event unfolds. EC maintains the NE flow with continuing levels of NE swell in the 3ft range extending into the weekend.

GFS suggests a cold front on Fri with SW winds then a rapid spike in new S swell. 

We’ll flag these for now, give it the weekend to shake out and revisit Mon for the necessary revisions.

Till then, have a great weekend.